Political Analyst: Situation In Belarus Depends On Three Countries

A new managerial class for our country is being created there.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó arrived in Minsk for the second time during the war. It is noteworthy that this is the only European official who comes to Belarus.

What could this visit be connected with? Charter97.org website talked about this with Ukrainian political scientist and writer Volodymyr Tsybulko:

— Firstly, Budapest has a special relationship with Beijing, this was evident during Xi Jinping’s last visit. Hungary has become a kind of base for China in the European Union, a base state for promoting its products and creating production centers. It seems to me that Xi Jinping tried to slightly balance the economy, including that of Belarus, because Belarus’s dependence on Russia is very radical.

We remember that China has a large industrial park near Minsk. It is likely that Beijing is trying to somehow create such a bridge from Minsk to the European Union, realizing that Lukashenka has no chance of building any kind of relationship personally. Hungary is testing the European Union for the limits of what is permitted. This whole combination is connected with bringing the Chinese transit project “One Belt, One Road” to the European Union.

At one time, the Chinese made a big bet on Italy, but it withdrew from this project. The Europeans have begun to carefully move away from Chinese loans and cooperation, so it seems to me that this is an attempt to link the two production bases. Hungary, for example, has limited capabilities to create a production base, so it is possible to use Belarus as a manufacturer of semi-finished products for final assembly in Hungary, this is entirely possible.

— In February of this year, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that there would be “one or two revolutions” in Belarus, and over time Minsk would enter the sphere of the West. Is such a scenario being considered in Budapest?

— Orbán generally sends such signals, but in fact the situation in Belarus depends on Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine, because these are border countries with huge Belarusian diasporas. If some new managerial class is being created for democratic Belarus, then it is being created in these countries, where the professional and political formation of many people is taking place.

Most likely, the game is designed for the fact that after the fall of Russia, Belarus will objectively become part of Europe.