13 June 2024, Thursday, 11:29
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Iranian Regime At Risk

Iranian Regime At Risk
Abbas Gallyamov

Putin's regime may be left without a strategic partner.

After Raisi's death, Iran's first vice president Mohber will serve as acting president, but new elections will have to be held in the country within 50 days, according to law.

They will be a difficult test for the system. The regime is terribly unpopular, its elites are fragmented, and the supreme ruler of Khamenei is a lame duck, he is 85 years old.

In recent years, the problem of consolidation of power has been solved by the finally degraded democratic procedures and the elimination of all moderates from the system. The last two parliamentary campaigns and one presidential campaign (during which Raisi, who crashed today, was elected) were held almost without competition. For the first time since the founding of the Islamic Republic, representatives of the so-called "reformist" wing were not admitted to the elections, so with an extremely low turnout, uncontested reactionaries won them. The result was a sharp increase in anti-systemic sentiment. Citizens saw that the government that had previously taken their opinion into account had completely closed inside themselves and retreated. The GAMAAN Research Center recently asked residents of the country: “If Iran held a referendum on the future of the Islamic Republic, what would you say: yes or no?” The affirmative answer was chosen by 16 percent of the respondents; the negative answer was chosen by 75 percent.

Khamenei will no longer be able to nominate a moderate reformist capable of finding a common language with people as the main candidate: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and most of the mullahs will not support him. To nominate someone from the conservatives means to be guaranteed to run into an explosion of discontent on the part of the people. In addition, we must understand that the reformists will not sit doing nothing. Regardless of the decision of the Rahbar (Supreme Leader of Iran), they will begin to rock the situation: actively nominate their candidates, talk about the need for change, and so on. They will have to refuse, provoking new scandals and heating up the tension.

Nominate the above-mentioned Mohber? All his life he led an extremely closed financial structure, which is considered to be the personal wallet of the head of state. This structure is so secret that even deputies of the local parliament do not see its budget. Nobody and never like people who manage such things: the elites envy them, and the ordinary people suspect them of corruption. You cannot solve the problem by being close to Khamenei: let me remind you that he is 85 years old, everyone understands that literally today or tomorrow he will not be there, so his word is no longer perceived as decisive.

Khamenei's son Mojtaba has about the same problems. Even being in much better shape than now, the Rahbar did not consider it possible to designate him as a successor candidate. He understood how unpopular it would be. As recently as two months ago, one of the members of the Council of Experts (a structure consisting of 88 members who will choose a new Rahbar after the death of the old one) publicly said that Khamenei flatly forbade anyone to even stammer about what one of his children could inherit from him – they say the Supreme Ayatollah against nepotism...

In general, the unexpected vacancy of the candidate for the successor of the 85-year-old leader of the country (and the president is the first contender for successors; Khamenei once gained supreme power from the post of president) is a colossal problem for an extremely unpopular, even hated by the people system. In this sense, I do not exclude that before the end of the summer, the Islamic Republic will no longer exist.

Then a completely different era will begin in the Middle East. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi Shiite militias – without Iran, they will all be in about the same position as the communist regimes of Eastern Europe were after the beginning of Gorbachev's perestroika.

And in general, it's not just about the Middle East. Putin's regime will also remain without a strategic partner. For him, this, of course, will not be as deadly as for Hamas, but nevertheless he will be under attack.

Abbas Gallyamov, Telegram

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