Political Scientist: Putin Is Seriously Mistaken When Betting On Trump
49- 6.03.2024, 16:38
- 28,716
The Kremlin is waiting for surprises.
Sitting president of the United States Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump won their parties' primaries in several states during Super Tuesday in the United States.
Charter97.org asked Oleksandr Musienko, a political expert and head of the Ukrainian Center for Military and Legal Studies, to comment on the results of the primaries:
— It is obvious that today there will be no alternative to Trump from the Republicans in the elections, as well as to Biden from the Democrats. That is, they will eventually compete. The Trump team is already looking ahead to November, forgetting about the primaries.
Republicans have a serious chance of winning. At the moment, Trump has more confident positions and a better chance of winning. Of course, there is still time before the US elections, it is too early to make final forecasts, but, as of now, I have the impression that Trump has more chances.
I note that if everything is clear with Biden, the Democrats will rally around him, then the Republicans have a different situation. Nikki Haley is not withdrawing from the primaries. A part of the Republican Party is focused on her.
Now the Trump campaign is faced with the task of trying to unite all the Republicans. There are also members of the Republican Party who openly opposed Trump, saying that they would vote for Biden.
In general, for the Trump team, the most important task at this stage is to rally all the circles in order to achieve the result.
— Trump is known for his statements that he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. What is behind this — the usual republican isolationism or does it really have a "trump card up its sleeve"?
— This statement, which, firstly, is very well perceived, is remembered from the media in terms of political strategy. Political strategy and exaggerations are used during any election campaign. Such statements go "into the asset", they give a plus.
I think that Trump himself understands this perfectly well, but deliberately makes the statements for the media. Do not forget that he has serious experience in communicating with the media and working for them. He perfectly well understands what messages to broadcast. I admit that he is very good at this. He knows how to throw in phrases that are quoted and remembered. Summarizing, this statement should be treated with due allowance for the fact that the election campaign is underway.
— Analysts believe that the Kremlin is betting on Trump's return to the White House. How will the US policy of supporting Ukraine change if Trump wins the election? Will Moscow's expectations come true?
— I remember that Putin said that he would like Biden to come. I will say this, their expectations have not come true at least once. Remember, they were celebrating with champagne drinks in 2016 and Zhyrinovsky was so happy with a glass of champagne? It can be the same now, with this situation and time.
It is very naive to think that Trump will run in any situation to try to negotiate with Russia, save it, and so on. Moreover, the fact is that Trump is less predictable. After all, Biden is a representative of the elites, it is clear how he acts. Putin has already adapted in a certain way.
Trump, on the other hand, is a surprise. He can now criticize Ukraine for something, talk about "24 hours" and something else, and then come to the post of US President and provide Ukraine with a package of assistance that was difficult to imagine even with Biden.
I emphasize that Trump is less predictable and in this regard, he does not fit the Kremlin well. It is clear that they want to flirt, to prove themselves, but it is difficult to predict his behavior. Therefore, even if they bet on him, they are quite seriously mistaken.
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