NATO Actively Engages With Territory Under Russia's Eternal Influence

The Kremlin speaks about a "second front".

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's visit to the South Caucasus should have been a routine event. However, against the background of the post-election statements of the Russian dictator Putin about a very possible war with NATO, this journey looks like a certain trolling. Like, you can say anything, and we have a plan for a "friendly visit" to the territories that you consider to be a zone of your own interests. They will only scale.

It is also worth noting that the previous such visit was quite a long time ago. During this time, important events took place in the Caucasus, which were closely watched, including by NATO. After all, the Black Sea is important from the point of view of the Alliance's security strategy.

Stoltenberg visited increasingly independent Azerbaijan, where he talked about natural gas supplies, Georgia, where he promised support on the way to joining the Alliance, and Armenia, which he supported in the quest for liberation from Russian influence.

The visit is not just an episode. The strategy for engaging with the three states was recently presented in Brussels in NATO's 2023 report. The section on the South Caucasus reads that NATO member states are actively engaging with these countries". There are expressions of support for the territorial integrity, political independence and sovereignty of each of the partners."

The OBOZ.UA article is about how NATO is increasingly entering the original territory of Russia's interests.

Azerbaijan – to NATO through Turkey

Azerbaijan participates in the non-alignment movement (created during the Cold War to avoid the involvement of blocs in the confrontation). Therefore, it is hardly worth waiting for some significant moves towards NATO soon. Moreover, Azerbaijan today is already well covered by the "umbrella of friendship" of Turkey, the NATO member state.

Today, Baku to some extent cooperates with NATO, taking part in the Partnership for Peace programme. There is also a separate partnership action plan for Azerbaijan, which specifies the details of military and technical cooperation.

Noting the role of Azerbaijan in ensuring energy security and developing "the closest ties with several NATO members" (a direct allusion to the Turks), the Alliance the NATO Secretary General called for "continued efforts" aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict with Armenia.

Georgia: the people are for, and the authorities are against

The situation regarding NATO is developing much more interestingly and actively in Georgia. The Georgian people are mainly for joining the bloc, but the current government is against it.

The country has officially set itself the goal of joining the Alliance. In January 2008, more than 70% of Georgians voted in favor of joining NATO, according to referendum results. However, after the Georgian Dream came to power, this movement slowed down significantly. But there was an intensification of relations with Russia.

Thus, since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Georgia has refused to impose sanctions against Russia and to help Ukraine with weapons. Today, the aggressor can receive dual-use goods through Georgia. In 2023, the Russian Federation abolished the visa regime for Georgian citizens, as well as the ban on air transportation to Georgia in force from June 2019. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said that such a decision is "political compensation" for Georgia's refusal to impose new sanctions against the Russian Federation.

In Georgia, Stoltenberg met with the country's pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili and Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, who, on the contrary, is known for anti-Western rhetoric. Earlier, he accused Ukraine of trying to unleash a war on Georgian territory, and before that he said that EU countries and the United States were trying to draw Georgians into the Russian-Ukrainian war.

The NATO report for 2023 states that Georgia is one of NATO's closest partners and a candidate for membership in the bloc. But at this stage, according to the document, in relation to Georgia, we can only talk about assistance in strengthening the country's defence capability.

Armenia – away from the Russian Federation

After many years of “fraternal assistance”, the Armenians recognized that dependence on Russia was a strategic mistake. That is why the current Armenia, in view of the sharp deterioration of its relations with Russia, is clearly of interest to NATO. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also makes it clear that Yerevan is interested in deepening cooperation with NATO.

The most interesting point is that Armenia takes part in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), where everything is dominated and decided by Russia. Finally, it became clear to the Armenian society that Russia was clearly not their ally, after the events of 2023, when the military operation of Azerbaijan on September 19-20 led to the surrender of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic with the complete inaction of Russian peacekeepers, in which Armenia pinned its hopes. After that, Pashinyan said that Yerevan was freezing its membership in the CSTO and could withdraw from the organization.

Against this background, discussions began about the need to withdraw Russian border guards from the capital's airport. The Armenian authorities also state that they do not see any advantages in the presence of Russian military bases in the country, because the peacekeeping mission failed. Hinting that it's time for the Russians to "take their coats and go home."

Now Yerevan is considering the possibility of introducing NATO standards into its own military education. In addition, the participation of Armenian servicemen in the Alliance's exercises, cooperation in the field of intelligence, as well as the modernization of the Armenian air defence system through the introduction of weapons and programs of NATO member states are discussed.

Putin surely does not like Armenia's program of cooperation with NATO, along with the recent resolution of the European Parliament, which called on the EU leadership to begin work on granting the country the status of a candidate for membership in the European Union.

Russia is again talking about the second front

Scandal was quite predictable from the Kremlin. Statements about the attempts of NATO to gain a foothold in the Caucasus today and the threat of instability in the region followed.

"There is a maximum task, namely, to open a 'second front' against our country in Transcaucasia [the South Caucasus - Ed.] and generally 'ignite' the region again," Russian Foreign Ministry Speaker Maria Zakharova said at a briefing.

At the same time, the Russian MFA has already announced a "second front" against Russia in the Caucasus. The United States is planning to open it.

"Washington has long been clear about considering the South Caucasus as a springboard for opening a 'second front' against Russia," Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin noted in December 2023.

The Caucasus is of great interest to NATO

"Why is the Caucasus attracting attention today? Because Georgia is a NATO partner with wide capabilities. Some changes in Armenia really irritate Moscow and indicate that the country can take a decisive step towards the West. Another reason is the end of the war in Karabakh, but the peace agreement has not yet been signed. All these factors are of interest to NATO," this opinion was expressed by Ukrainian diplomat Ihor Dolhov, who headed the Mission of Ukraine to NATO, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine for European Integration, in an exclusive comment to OBOZ.UA.

"In the current circumstances, this visit is important for the development of partnership and emphasizes that the Black Sea region remains under NATO's monitoring.

Georgia is reasonably a NATO partner with special capabilities. The country actively participated in the operation in Afghanistan, and the number of the Georgian troops was significant. On the other hand, the territory of Georgia remains partially occupied. From this point of view, Georgia is also the object of NATO's attention. Moreover, at the end of last year, it was reported that the Russians were going to modernize the port in Abkhazia, that is, in the Russian-occupied Georgian territory.

At the same time, Georgia does not continue the construction of its deep-water port of Anaklia, which is also important from the point of view of the security strategy of the Black Sea region.

Armenia has taken several important steps away from Moscow and towards the West. One of them is a statement on the possible withdrawal from the CSTO, the reduction of the Russian military presence and the deepening of cooperation with the EU. Therefore, NATO is also interested in this.

The visit to Azerbaijan is important from the point of view of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, which needs to be normalized through the signing of an agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But the matter is not moving yet. In addition, Azerbaijan is developing powerful economic cooperation with neighboring and brotherly Turkey, which is a NATO member state. Therefore, there is also a lot of interest here," said Ihor Dolhov.