'They Could Simply Sent Lukashenka To Join Prigozhin'

The Belarusian dictator received a signal from the Kremlin.

Lukashenka and Putin will hold a "separate meeting" in Minsk, where the Russian leader will arrive to participate in a meeting of the "supreme state council" of the so-called union state on December 6.

Is this a ritual visit? Or does it have a practical purpose? The Charter97.org website talked about this with political scientist Dzmitry Balkunets:

— I believe that this visit is of a ritual nature, given that this is the 25th anniversary of the signing of the "union treaty" of 1999, which is a profanity. It is not fully implemented, and it is unlikely that it will ever be implemented. According to my estimates, this agreement was made exclusively under Lukashenko in 1999, so that he could take the place of Boris Yeltsin.

But Russia now considers this treaty as an attempt to establish control over the economy and political situation in Belarus. And in some respects they manage to do this, because the principles that are laid down there — about the emergence of a formal confederation — are unrealistic to implement.

No matter who tries to restore the Soviet Union through this treaty, this model is unstable and will not work.

There is another very important aspect — in 1996, when the first attempt was made to create all these integration measures with the Russian Federation, it was in Yeltsin's favor before the presidential election.

Russia actively used it, and Lukashenko enjoyed all the benefits due to the fact that he managed to pull finances out of Russia every time to maintain his economic model, which he calls an "economic miracle". And the miracle is that Belarus has received and continues to receive energy resources from Russia at very preferential prices. And now it also receives quite voluminous opportunities for the supply of products to the market, from which Western companies have left.

Lukashenka uses it. But in fact, this led to a large-scale decline in the incomes of the Belarusian people, because if we compare the progress of the country over the past 30 years in comparison with neighboring Western countries, for example, Poland, Hungary and others, it is clear that Belarus has not developed globally. Today, it ranks fourth from the bottom among all European countries in terms of GDP per capita. Only the situation in Ukraine is poorer, but there is a war there, in Moldova, and also in Albania, in my opinion. And Belarus is already further away.

This shows that the model chosen by Lukashenka is a dead end. And the directions that he implemented did not lead to the emergence of any new technologies in Belarus and so on. But Russia uses this as an opportunity to control the territory. This especially intensified after 2020, when the directions for deepening integration were implemented.

Russia began to control certain databases in Belarus. A number of Belarusian enterprises have switched to Russian software and many other things. And this, in fact, is a threat to both Belarus and Russia. Because Russia is then forced to drag this cart, which is absolutely unprofitable, this unreformed Soviet economy, which Lukashenka keeps afloat.

Now Belarus is quite an important center for Russia in case of new attempts to attack other states — the Baltic countries, Poland. If the Kremlin makes such attempts, they will do it from the territory of Belarus.

The mistake of the Western countries was that they flirted with the dictator for many years and financed Lukashenka. The European Union allocated billions of euros from the budget to finance cooperation within the framework of the Eastern Partnership, but the money all went to the budget of the dictator's family.

He mastered them, he built his residences with the money that the European Union allocated. They reported that over the past four years they allocated 140 million euros to Belarus, but it is unknown where this money went, who received it. It was a mistake of the European Union. Where is all that money? Who got them? Some scammers who are now spending these funds on the call to go to the "elections" in January? They receive grants, they receive millions of euros.

But this is all in Lukashenka's hands, and the European Union does not want to deal with this. The Kremlin is using this situation. They see that Europe finances various quasi-organizations but they are engaged in simply saving the dictator.

I believe that this issue requires a global discussion in general. Why is Europe funding Lukashenka and Putin? And for what purpose are they doing this? And then we wonder why Putin is strengthening the "union state" and so on. Because this kind of policy comes from the other side.

At the same time, no one cares about human rights. Europe continues to trade actively with Lukashenka and Putin, carrying goods, smuggling. No one wants to admit the fact that it is possible to release political prisoners by imposing tough sanctions. You can demand the denunciation of the "union treaty" and so on, but Europe continues to earn money on the misfortune of the Belarusian people.

— One of the stated topics is security. Against the background of the events in Syria, is Putin a kind of a guarantor of security for Lukashenka?

— Putin is the guarantor of security in some part of Lukashenka's safety. But still, I am inclined to assume that Lukashenka has now abandoned Putin after he did not fulfill his obligation, his oath, which he gave as children, that he would not participate in the next elections.

Now, I suppose, this can play a role. However, Putin can take advantage of the situation and draw even more from Lukashenka. He can even support him in these next so-called elections, even give him a penny, but he will demand even more from him, more than what Lukashenka can give.

Otherwise, he may simply be sent to Prigozhin. Those audio recordings of Lukashenka's conversations with Prigozhin, which appeared not so long ago, I believe that this is a deliberate stuffing on the part of the Kremlin or near the Kremlin's law enforcement agencies to show Lukashenka his place on the map. Only those who control this entire information stream and have technical access to record them could have such records. I think these are the signals for Lukashenka.

Putin doesn't like to be betrayed. And this was a scam when Lukashenka did not fulfill what he promised him in 2020, and also he had been fooling him for four years. I think that Putin can take it back, or get something from Lukashenka that can be very painful for Belarus and for neighboring countries.

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