'Black Swan' Might Always Show Up'

The political scientist describes what to expect in 2025.

Charter97.org website continues to sum up the results of the outgoing year. What was 2024 like for the world? What to expect from the coming year? Is the West ready to respond to new challenges? We talked about this with Slovakian political scientist and President of the Institute of Public Problems (IVO) (Bratislava) Grigorij Mesežnikov:

— This year turned out to be quite difficult. We see how authoritarian forces unite, coordinate their actions and openly support each other. The world of freedom and democracy, including the countries that support Ukraine, unfortunately, did not always act in a coordinated manner. This state, when the democratic world, despite the right goals, is not on the same wavelength, is reflected in the current situation on the Russian-Ukrainian front.

Here we can recall the cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine by the United States due to internal political differences. Some Western allies in Europe doubt the advisability of providing more effective weapons to Ukraine, fearing a possible escalation and so on. It is quite obvious that closer cooperation is necessary for the successful struggle of the democratic community against authoritarian and aggressive regimes.

I think it's such a trivial statement. This year, unfortunately, this was especially evident. There is a lack of coordination and firmness in positions. To this is added the fact that in some countries the forces that oppose the coordinated approach of democratic countries in support of Ukraine are strengthening their positions.

— What major events of the outgoing year would you note?

— First of all, the election of Donald Trump as the President of the United States. I think that this is an important event, and its consequences are not yet completely clear, but there is no doubt that they will be. It can be seen that Donald Trump is a politician of a different kind than those who held positions of power in key Western countries. He does not perceive himself as the leader of the free world, and the United States, apparently, also does not perceive itself as a country that plays a dominant role in the free world.

He is 'transaction' politician which can sometimes lead to positive results, but his positions on key issues are not fully clear. That is, he talks about the need to end the war in Ukraine. But at the expense of what? What will be the price of such termination? Will this mean that Ukraine will remain an independent state, that Ukraine will restore its territorial integrity? Donald Trump may accept such decisions that will not correspond to this. So this event, of course, is important.

The situation on the Russian-Ukrainian front remains an event of paramount importance. It is also worth noting what is happening in the Middle East. Israel has achieved significant success in the struggle against those forces that seek to destroy the Jewish state. This is an important signal of how democracy and a free society can be defended, even in those difficult conditions that relate to the partnership and alliance of free countries. Israel has shown its allies and partners that their advice and positions do not always lead to results that help to preserve this state and withstand the worst enemies. The question is when the Western allies will finally understand that compromises in the fight against evil can be harmful.

It should also be noted the situation in Slovakia, this year there was an assassination attempt on Robert Fico. This event led to an increase in the aggressiveness of the political establishment in power. Fico became more open in the manifestation of his views, which, for example, was expressed in his visit to Putin. Before that, he showed himself as a politician with Russia-friendly positions, as an anti-Western politician who criticizes the European Union and our closest allies. For Slovakia, this is important, because the process of weakening the liberal-democratic regime, unfortunately, continues, which affects the foreign policy orientation of Slovakia.

The fact is that Robert Fico already feels more confident because he has the support of Viktor Orban. In the European Union, this is the second country that is beginning to openly pursue a policy that is incompatible with the general line of the European Union. The visit to Putin is already, as they say, beyond all acceptable limits.

The situation in the European Union itself is becoming more complicated. It is clear that for the normal functioning of the European Union, without significant internal obstacles, it will be necessary to find ways to interact (and increasingly counteract) with people such as Viktor Orban and Robert Fico, invest energy, money and time in this. Previously, despite the problems that arose, the European Union managed to find solutions, for example, in the issues of sanctions against Russia in response to its aggressive policy. However, now the situation is becoming more complicated.

Now it will be more difficult to work with Fico and Orban, especially given that they coordinate their actions. In addition, Robert Fico demonstrates not only sympathy for Russia, but also a general interest in authoritarian regimes. In general, he follows the path of Viktor Orban, he generally gravitates towards authoritarian countries. It's not only Russia, it's also China. I have no doubt that he has sympathy for Cuba and Venezuela.

So we now have a person of this type as prime minister, which inevitably affects the foreign policy steps of Slovakia. These actions of the government create difficulties in relations with allies.

— If you delve into the events in the Middle East, can the situation with the fall of the Assad regime make the same Fico or Orban, other autocrats think about something?

— I don't know how this can directly affect Fico and Orban. After all, both Hungary and Slovakia are not states with dictatorial regimes. If we talk about Fico, he is a man with rather strange preferences. As for Orban, he cannot be suspected of sympathizing with Islamist regimes hostile to Israel. Rather, he takes a pro-Israel stance. It's actually quite curious. It seems to me that Orban's position is connected with his desire to stand out against the backdrop of the European mainstream. Although the mainstream in Europe is not openly anti-Israel, it is trying to adopt some kind of balanced policy. Orban, on the contrary, demonstratively supports Israel. Fico has not yet had such manifestations, but we will see how events develop further.

As for the situation in other countries in the Middle East, especially in Syria, I think the events there will weaken the so-called 'outcasts international'. This has already weakened Russia and will continue to weaken it. Russia's influence in the Middle East, including Syria, which it held for a long time, is likely to gradually come to its end. It seems to me unlikely that she will be able to negotiate with the Islamists who have now come to power in Syria.

The process of redeployment of the Russian armed forces from Syria to Libya has already begun, the positions of Iran and all its proxy forces are weakening. For example, the influence of Hezbollah, which actually acts as a state within a state in Lebanon, is likely to decrease markedly. Perhaps these changes will lead to changes in Iran itself. Just recently, it was reported that the Shiite pro-Iranian militias stopped launching drones against Israel, that is, in fact, they stop fighting with Israel. I think this is due to the weakening of the Islamic regime in Iran, as well as Israel's harsh reaction to such attacks. This position of Israel forces the pro-Iranian forces to be more restrained.

At the moment, the changes are noticeable primarily in the Middle East itself, but they also have serious consequences for Putin. This weakens the general position of Russia, which, in fact, has moved to a form of existence in which war is the norm.

It is worth recalling that in 2015, Putin's decision to intervene in the Syrian conflict, in fact, to invade Syria, was most likely due to the need to maintain the image of a besieged fortress at war with enemies. Then the Russian-Ukrainian war was low-intensity, and new fronts were needed to pump up the population with bellicose propaganda — the idea of helping external allies (mainly rogue countries), fighting enemies (that is, the free world) and constantly waging war. Since 2022, a full-scale war has become the norm for the Russian regime.

However, now that Russia is losing the opportunity to use its actions in Syria to mobilize the population, this could weaken Putin's regime. This is a significant change.

— What are your forecasts for 2025? Who and what can do to make it better?

— In order to make progress on the key issue for us, Russia's war against Ukraine, the West must intensify its assistance to Kyiv. It is necessary to revise the protocols for the use of the supplied weapons and make them more effective for Ukraine. It is difficult to say how likely such a developments are.

As for Trump's position, the situation remains mysterious. He makes some statements, and then prepares quite controversial appointments in his new administration, which can significantly affect US foreign policy, including the conflict in Ukraine and relations with allies. Some of these appointments cause me concern, because, in my opinion, their candidates do not sufficiently understand the danger posed by Russia. Trying to negotiate with Putin on terms that Trump might want to see could weaken Ukraine. In addition, the prospects for direct support of Ukraine — both in the form of arms supplies and financially — do not look very encouraging. Although, of course, I could be wrong. In this situation, close cooperation of the entire democratic world in support of Ukraine is extremely important.

As for the internal situation in Russia, it seems that there is practically no opposition left there. The only thing that can change the situation is some internal events within the power elite itself. But it is difficult to imagine a specific scenario, and, frankly, I do not have special expectations for positive development within Russia.

In the Middle East, if we consider the situation from the point of view of weakening retrograde and authoritarian forces, there may be significant changes. The focus remains on the confrontation between Israel and Iran. Israel has already caused tangible damage to Iran, and if it dares to take a decisive step, for example, to eliminate the nuclear threat from Iran, then the key issue will be coordination with the United States.

I think Israel is capable of doing some of that work on its own, but U.S. support will still play an important role. How all this will turn out with the new American administration remains unclear. It is obvious that Trump is more aggressive towards Iran than the current outgoing administration.

As for Europe, here the situation is of some concern. The positions of right-wing populist, predominantly pro-Russian, forces in a number of countries are strengthening, and this trend may continue. Of particular importance will be the elections in major European countries, which may affect the further development of the region. My expectations here remain skeptical.

Of course, there is always the possibility of an unexpected developments that a 'black swan' might show up, which can radically and positively change the current situation.

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