'This Is One Of Ukraine's Major Breakthroughs'

The political scientist spoke about an important event of the outgoing year that will affect the front.

What was the outgoing year for Ukraine and the world? Who is the hero of the outgoing year? Charter97.org spoke about this with the famous Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies:

— For Ukraine, the year was difficult, hard,and problematic in different dimensions. The first four months of 2024 were not even interruptions, but a protracted pause with military assistance from the United States.

This harmed the situation at the front. It allowed the Russian Federation to strengthen the offensive in the Donbas. Unfortunately, Russia remains the advantage in resources, the number of troops, ammunition, and weapons, including the advantage in the air, which allows the Kremlin to continue, albeit slow but still offensive.

Throughout this year, it has become apparent that the war is dragging on indefinitely. Russia cannot defeat Ukraine, there was no breakthrough in the war, but, I repeat, this year the advantage of the Russian Federation in resources was manifested.

Nevertheless, Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to strike back over this year. Moreover, the strikes were sensitive. It is worth noting the tendency to transfer military operations to the territory of the Russian Federation. The Kursk offensive operation showed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not lose the potential to conduct successful, vivid offensive operations.

Significantly, the operation took place in August, but so far Russian troops have not been able to regain control over the Kursk region.

Another trend is that Ukraine has significantly increased the production of its own military products. Ukraine understands that it is very important for the future of the country to develop its own military potential. Moreover, Ukrainian military production facilities are not fully loaded, there is a large reserve for development.

I note that the production of military drones is developing particularly rapidly. Now this is our main weapon for striking at the territory of the Russian Federation and in general at the front. They are now also used within the framework of the air defence system of Ukraine. This is one of the main breakthroughs in the development of Ukraine's military potential.

An important trend in diplomatic terms was the signing of agreements on security cooperation with more than 20 countries. Including — with all the G7 countries, the EU and NATO. Through these agreements, Ukraine began to form a partnership coalition, which is designed for a longer period.

The year 2024, especially its second half, was associated with the intensification of diplomacy regarding the beginning of discussions on the prospects for future peace negotiations. In this regard, the most notable event for Ukrainian diplomacy was the first Global Peace Summit in June.

Of course, Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election was also a very strong factor in this regard. It was after it that very strong (sometimes overestimated) expectations of quick peace negotiations and even some agreements on ending the war in Ukraine arose.

I think that the likelihood of negotiations after Trump's victory in the United States has increased significantly, but this does not mean that there will be any quick peace agreements.

Russia is trying to exert military influence not only on Ukraine, but also on the West. The trend of 2024 is the threat of nuclear weapons (this began in 2023 with the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus), but this year Putin tried to continue this pressure.

At the end of the year, he had a new 'toy' — Oreshnik. The threat of modern hypersonic missile weapons is now a new feature of Putin.

At the same time, the West still stands in solidarity with Ukraine, and systemic support for the country remains. Ukraine continues to consistently and confidently follow the path of European integration. In particular, the negotiation process in this area has begun at political level. So far, this is only the initial phase, but this is also a significant trend of the outgoing year.

I note that the first F-16s finally appeared in Ukraine in the summer. This is a very important weapon for us. It is important for the country to strengthen its air force to equalize the situation in the air.

— What major world events of the outgoing year would you highlight?

— The most high-profile event was the US election and Trump's victory. The election campaign in the United States attracted attention throughout the year, greatly influencing international politics.

Among some other significant events, I note the elections to the European Parliament, the renewal of the European Commission. A very difficult situation developed in France, where Macron embarked on an experiment with parliamentary elections. This provoked a fever in the domestic political life of France, which continues to this day.

During the year, a number of elections were held, which attracted a lot of attention. During the year, there was a kind of electoral fever, which began at the beginning of the year in Taiwan.

Electoral processes in different countries of the world provoked very much tension around and within these countries. Also elections in the UK, Georgia, Moldova, Romania.

Even to the significant international events of 2024, I will attribute very difficult, tense situations in the Middle East: the intensification of Israel's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, against Hamas. There were very bright operations of the Israeli special services, which greatly weakened Hezbollah. In the spring and autumn, there were spikes in reciprocal air attacks between Israel and Iran.

At the end of the year, an unexpected but, I think, very significant event for the Middle East was the collapse of the Assad regime and the change of power in Syria.

It is also worth remembering that at the beginning of the year a military-political alliance was formed between Russia and North Korea. The consequence of this was the involvement of North Korean troops for the war against Ukraine. This is a very threatening trend. Some even talk about the first signs of the Third World War.

— Who is the hero of the outgoing year?

— It is obvious who the main anti-hero is — Putin. If we talk about the person who attracted the most attention, the brightest figure of this year is Trump. This year there were a lot of bright, significant events, but he was the main newsmaker. He is the man of the year, no matter how we treat him.

— Many expect that 2025 will bring the end of the war. What do you think, is that the case?

— I have a slightly different answer. Next year, Ukraine and the world will be on the verge of war and peace. In which direction the development of events will go depends on how successful the peace negotiations will be.

There is a very high probability that peace talks will be held in 2025. Obviously, Trump will make attempts, but it will turn out or not — the question is.

I note that China is increasingly demonstrating its role in various international affairs. I do not exclude that next year China will participate in the peace process in one form or another.

Will the attempt at peace negotiations be successful? There is a high probability that negotiations and the war will continue in the first half of next year. Putin is not going to end the war, but negotiations can go on in parallel. Putin seeks to negotiate only with the United States and Trump, not Ukraine.

Ukraine and our European partners are not satisfied with this situation. The further development of the situation will depend on whether or not it will be possible to agree on what conditions.

If Ukraine, together with its partners, manages to stop or significantly slow down the Russian offensive, then there will be a greater chance that there will be agreements and a cessation of hostilities.

But the war may last for the whole next year. There may be a surge of tension not only around Ukraine, but also on a larger scale.

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