Dzmitry Bandarenka: Drastic Changes Await Us With Trump's Power
18- 6.11.2024, 16:07
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PHOTO: CHARTER'97
Dictators should not expect anything good from the Republicans.
Republican Donald Trump becomes the 47th president of the United States by a large margin in the elections, Republicans take the majority in the Senate and the lower house of Congress. Was the outcome of the US election a sensation? What to expect from the policy of the new US president. Dzmitry Bandarenka, coordinator of the European Belarus Civil Campaign, spoke to Charter97.org about this and more.
— The result was predictable, because in the last election, when Joe Biden won, he had a margin of about 6% in the polls. When Trump became the 45th president of the United States, polls showed that Hillary Clinton would have 6% more. Now it was clear that if the Democrat Kamala Harris did not have such a stock, she would lose the election. The sensation is that the victory was so impressive. After all, Trump wins in all the "swing states", although the votes are not yet fully counted. However, experts say that Harris no longer has a mathematical chance to win. Trump's victory was also indicated by such an indicator as the “spiral of silence”, when the majority of voters said in polls that they expected Trump to win.
The sensation is also that the Republicans won the elections to both the Senate and the lower house of Congress. The vote count isn't over yet, but experts and mathematicians say Republicans will control the presidency, the Senate, and Congress.
— There are very different assessments of Trump's possible foreign policy: someone includes alarmism, someone looks with hope for change. What to expect from the new US president?
— There will be drastic changes. They will be based on Trump's economic decisions. After all, he is a well-known protectionist. Trump said that he would increase duties on goods not only from China, but also from the European Union. If such actions follow, it will inevitably affect foreign policy. We must understand that despite the monopoly of power that lies ahead of the Republicans, there is a system of checks and balances in the United States, there are also different positions in the Republican Party. The Republican establishment is known for its tendencies to support US leadership in the world, which means that dictatorships will not have the opportunity to triumph.
However, the figure of the US president himself in foreign policy is very ambiguous. Many express concern about how Trump will contribute to maintaining the status quo when democratic countries, the G-7 countries, are the main stabilizing force in the world. I want to repeat once again that there have always been people in the Republican Party who understand that without the leadership of the United States in the world, the country may find itself in chaos.
— During the election campaign, Trump said several times that he would drop world oil prices below $50 per barrel. Is this scenario possible?
— Since the technological breakthrough, when it became possible to produce shale oil, the United States has radically changed the situation in the world. Now oil prices do not depend solely on the desire of the rulers of the countries of the Middle East. America can quickly increase oil supplies to the world market. There is also a "golden mean" here, because oil companies in the United States do not suffer today. If Trump decides to use oil as a geopolitical weapon and a tool to influence some countries, he will do it.
— The main fear is the so-called "Trump peace plan" for Ukraine, which no one has seen. There was a tougher version from former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, there were more conciliatory proposals from Trump's campaign advisers. Will they keep supporting Ukraine?
— The position of the former US presidential candidate, Senator John McCain, is closer to me. He openly declared the actions that the United States should take and called America the main guarantor of democracy in the world. Here we can hope for the inconsistency of Trump's behavior, that all election promises will not be fully implemented. After all, we know that this happens all over the world.
Many analysts say that Trump stands for US leadership, his individual leadership on the world stage. Not the fact that Putin will agree with this, not the fact that Trump's actions will appeal to dictatorial regimes in Russia, Iran, China. Here, we will look forward to what Trump's actions will follow.
Let me remind you that in 2016, Russian propaganda media triumphed that Trump became the 45th president of the United States, but it turned out that Russia did not receive visible preferences under his rule, but it was under him that the supply of American weapons to Ukraine began. The same famous Javelins, air defense systems. The Russians were terribly disappointed. In this regard, of course, Trump will not be able to act alone. He will be forced to take into account the opinions of many experts in international politics and security in his party.
— Will the United States keep its strong position to the dictatorship in Belarus?
— The situation in Belarus will depend on the situation in the whole region and the attitude of the United States to Putin's dictatorship. We depend on the general situation in the region. I would like to say that no one can stop the aspirations for freedom of Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova — those countries that are not members of the EU and NATO. Belarusians in 2020, Ukrainians earlier, Moldovans and many Georgians today declare that they want to live in free and prosperous countries that are part of European civilization and the Euro-Atlantic alliance. Don't forget about it. The Belarusian people remain sovereign. Much depends on ourselves.
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