Dzmitry Bandarenka: Europeans Can End The War Faster Than Trump

Russia simply cannot stand it.

Belarusians reacted differently to the election of Republican Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States. Someone is afraid of his second term, someone looks at him with hope. What can we expect from Donald Trump's presidency? The coordinator of the European Belarus Civil Campaign Dzmitry Bandarenka told about this and more on the air of Radio Racyja. Charter97.org publishes the conversation:

You can listen to the conversation here

— If I lived in the United States, I would be a Republican. Of course, this is the influence of the policies of Ronald Reagan, the great American president. This is the influence of Senator John McCain's moral policy. But in this election, I expected what the American people would decide. I can't say that I was for Trump's victory. And I predict that it will be worse at first, and in our region too. Then a real Republican machine will work, because the Republicans are in favor of American leadership in the world, so that the dictatorial regimes do not dominate.

And the Republicans have a lot of experience in influencing various scoundrels, in those states that Reagan once called the "evil empire". I hope that the Republican establishment, well versed in the international situation, will at some point take the fate of the whole world into their hands.

— Do they have a specific plan for Ukraine? I mean this transitional administration, the Trump team. Because some details are already leaking out. They say that it is necessary to stop the war, set a certain date for a ceasefire, create a demilitarized zone, bring in either American or UN troops. Will it benefit Ukraine and Belarus?

— First, the persons of the Trump administration who will be responsible for international politics have not yet been named. Second, we don't know if that's Trump's plan. But what is thrown in now, of course, is unsafe. At the same time, I can say that it is unlikely that dictator Putin will agree to this. Therefore, now will be a time of turbulence.

— Chaos begins, as you can see. The statements of Republican political strategist Bryan Lanza made noise. He said that Ukraine should forget about Crimea. And then the representative of the transitional administration of Trump said that this position should not be taken as the position of the elected president. It feels like there's no agreement among them.

— I want to say that in general the situation in the world is not so simple. Trump proceeds from the fact that he is a good communicator and a businessman who can negotiate with everyone. But we remember how, for example, Trump also tried to negotiate with the dictator of North Korea.

— Israel and Palestine, he almost succeeded during his first term.

— He just intimidated the Arabs for a while. And it did not work out with North Korea, because Reagan first put pressure, and then held negotiations, and Trump hopes that he will easily interest dictators in a change of policy . Now Trump has created a certain border for himself and said: “I stand for world peace”, as Soviet leaders once did. And this will not work, because the world is now...

— … separated. They talk about the global North and the global South.

— When I studied at the University of Warsaw for postgraduate studies, we had a teacher, Krzysztof Zilke, who taught us the Global Security System. He told us about the concept of hegemonic cycles. Now we live in a time when there is a change of hegemony in the world.

Once the hegemons were the Netherlands, England, then Great Britain. Since about 1945, the only hegemon in the world is the United States of America.

And today, China is challenging the United States, because China's GDP in terms of purchasing power parity has already surpassed that of the United States, and in the next 5-7 years it may surpass it in absolute numbers.

China has a huge merchant fleet, a giant army, very strong technologies. Will there be a real war between China and the United States? We don't know because we live in a time of nuclear weapons. But we understand that a trade war is inevitable, and we know that the leadership of the Chinese Communists has planned to return the island of Taiwan by 2027, and Taiwan does not want this. Tens of millions of people live there, and the economy is very strong. The states promised that they would defend Taiwan from mainland China.

And simple business approaches are good when Trump talks about them to residents of small towns in the inner states. But this will not solve global issues anyhow. I say that it will take a very big effort of the entire United States together with allies to ensure stability in the world and prevent dictatorships from becoming the leaders on our planet.

— In this regard, there is a position that the democratic world does not want to allow the complete defeat of Russia, so that China does not become dominant in Eurasia.

— This is since 70% of China's trade with Europe, the Middle East and Africa passes through the Strait of Malacca. And they will not have access to raw materials if the Americans block this strait. Therefore, Russian Siberia will become such a place where raw materials for China will be located. And the States did not want this and said: "Russians, you can become part of the golden billion."

Russian billionaires have become the "golden billion", but they will not feel good if the entire population of Russia is part of the "golden billion".

However, in hegemonic wars, some often fight, and others become hegemons. It is believed that the period of hegemonic wars in the 20th century was the First and Second World Wars. Great Britain, the Soviet Union and Germany fought, and the United States won. And our teacher Zilke said that the European Union could become the new hegemon. And now the global situation may push EU leaders to realize that no one will ensure the security of European countries. And if the European Union wants to remain a world player — it must have a certain territory.

Europe is already small, losing Ukraine, losing Belarus is simply irrational for Europeans, because if the United States does not protect Europe, cover it with a military and nuclear umbrella, as it was for many decades after the Second World War, Europe will have to take its fate into its own hands.

The population can grow at the expense of migrants, but the territory must be preserved. Both Ukraine and Belarus are part of Europe.

Today, Europeans have already realized that the Russian army is not so strong. If France, Poland, and Britain had really supported Ukraine, Russia would have lost this war, because it would not have been able to withstand it economically.

— In your terms, today's confrontation between the hegemons is taking place at the expense of the lives of Ukrainians. There are no foreigners who die there. Now North Korea has joined on the side of Russia. Belarusians die as volunteers.

— Everyone wants to live in times of peace. And all the priests of different religions pray for peace in the world. But, unfortunately, life is built differently. And this largest war in Europe, a hot war with huge casualties, came to the European continent. It is not known whether it will end in Ukraine or spread to other territories.

I think when the Americans offer the British, the Poles, the French, the German army to enter Ukraine to become peacekeepers, it would be logical just for the soldiers of these countries to help Ukraine today.

After all, if there is a truce in Ukraine and Trump thinks that he has achieved everything, one can expect the capture of Daugavpils, the capture of Narva, and aggression in the Suvalkovsky corridor.

Today, the Baltic countries breathed a sigh of relief after Sweden and Finland joined NATO, but if Trump and American isolationists do not want to deal with Ukraine, will American soldiers die and fight for Narva, for Daugavpils?

– Exactly. The other day, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that he did not want to send Polish citizens to war for Poland to get directly involved in these hostilities.

— However, he said another "but": "But we do not want the defeat of Ukraine. We must rely on ourselves, on our Polish armed forces and on a Europe that will ultimately defend itself. ”

And then we remember: "People, defend yourself!", as our leader said in the XIX century. Ukraine showed that if it had not fought, it would not have received help, would not have received allies. Also, Poland, which knows very well in its experience what a "Russian invasion" is.

All Belarusians are to understand that at some point we may have to fight with weapons in our hands. And today we are part of the democratic bloc. The States will be there, they won't be, but Europe is very strong. Even the European economy, if we take the UK, exceeds the Russian one by more than 10 times.

— Regarding Belarus, the person who is already so much in the information space, but nevertheless. Is there any connection with the fact that Trump's inauguration is scheduled for January 20, and Lukashenko has scheduled his fake elections for January 26?

— I don't think Lukashenka specifically did it because of Trump.

— Lukashenka's very complimentary statements towards Trump, which we have heard for several days.

— As my other professor at the University of Warsaw, Professor Targalski, said: "No matter." Lukashenko appointed these "elections" to make it difficult for people to be active and campaign. He is so scared of 2020, when he only once appointed an "election" for the summer, and what happened next. Therefore, the "elections" will be in the middle of winter.

And his cries do not matter, today he is busy with his health, his family and many say that there is another reason — whether he will make it to the election day.

— And the last question. Just to clarify your prediction. You said that at first, it will be very bad, very difficult, and then we will come out positive. What about the time?

— We need the Trump administration to work. Then they'll make some mistakes.

As one Republican establishment American friend told me, “Remember, Zmitser, Americans always do the right thing by trying all the wrong methods first.”

I hope that not all and there will be a few mistakes, and then the democratic mechanism will work. A democratic society is built in such a way that it responds to challenges and tries to change the situation when certain mistakes are made.

Recall that even during the Second World War, the Americans did not want to fight in any way, but it ended with the dictators forcing them to react. The democratic world defeated the Nazis and the Japanese militarists, very brutal regimes, but the United States of America played the main role.

— But we can already say for sure that 2025 will be more turbulent and more unpredictable than the current year.

– Right. For sure.

— Dzmitry Bandarenka, the former political prisoner and coordinator of the European Belarus Civil Campaign, visited our studio. Thank you, Dzmitry, for this conversation.

— Thanks a lot!

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