'The Intrigue Will Be Resolved In Ten Days'
14- 23.10.2024, 15:06
- 22,884
Why is the dictator in such a hurry with the "elections"?
The so-called "presidential elections" in Belarus will be held on January 26, 2025. It is worth noting that the date is different from the one that hit the media. Earlier it was reported that the "elections" will be held on February 23. Why are the authorities in such a hurry? Charter97.org talked about this with Belarusian political scientist Anatol Kotau:
– There are a several factors. Firstly, Lukashenka's health does not improve, but on the contrary, worsens from month to month. This is a subjective factor.
There is a factor that, probably, can be considered external, this is the war in Ukraine. Some freezing of the conflict was expected in November-December, but it did not happen. Lukashenka wants so much (he does not even hide it) to get a place at the table of some negotiations on the post-war settlement of the situation. Naturally, if he is not reelected or goes to the Supreme People's Assembly, it will be very difficult for him to get a place at this table. So he has to hurry.
Plus, if we talk about Ukraine, it is obvious that so far he has not received support from the Kremlin for his seventh illegal term. Accordingly, in order to have time to be re-elected without this support, he needs to take advantage of the moment while Russia is busy in Ukraine.
— It is noteworthy that the date is set on the day when Lukashenka flew to Russia. Was it a coincidence?
— I think they were just looking for the closest possible deadline, so on the one hand, this is a calendar coincidence. And on the other hand, now he has something to discuss in Kazan with Putin. And not only to try to knock out support for this period, because "the people demand elections, the people demand nomination."
Therefore, Lukashenka will try to either discuss this topic or return from Kazan with an answer that "Moscow does not mind". But Moscow may not say yes or no, simply because Putin does not care in the next two days about Belarus and the so-called elections.
I would draw attention to another interesting point, which can hardly be considered a coincidence. As soon as Lukashenka flew to Kazan, the whole Minister of Defence of Russia flew to Minsk on a visit. This is quite unusual, because Lukashenka considers himself the Commander-in-Chief, such visits usually do not occur without meeting with him. And in general, visits of Russian ministers rarely take place (probably never took place) without meetings and an audience with Lukashenka.
And here it was done in such a way that they purposefully missed each other. This is done in order to show who really rules in Belarus.
— Lukashenka still has not clearly answered whether he will go for a new term. What do you think is that?
— Because he does not know whether he will go or not, because the decision is ripe in his head that it is necessary to go. In his opinion, this is the only chance to get out, but I don't think so. On the contrary, in no case could he start an electoral campaign with his participation.
The question is how to declare that he is going with the support of Russia or, relatively speaking, without contradictions with it. Or it will only have an absolutely virtual, artificial support in the form of "unity marathons" and the like. These are three completely different situations with the announcement of his election campaign. Only 10 days left, then the next intrigue will be resolved.
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