SBU Major General: The Kremlin Is Afraid Of This

Russia is on the verge of a social explosion.

The majority of Russians (61%) who approve of Vladimir Putin's activities are in favor of concluding a peace treaty with Ukraine with mutual concessions. This was shown by a survey of the Chronicles research project.

Why is public opinion in the Russian Federation changing so much? Charter97.org spoke about this with the former Deputy Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Reserve Major General Viktor Yahun:

— I think that the refrigerator begins to beat the TV, as the Russians say. All this is more about economics. Secondly, people feel the approach of something significant. Older generations can compare the current situation to what they have encountered before — it is similar to the late Soviet Union.

And how did the late Soviet Union end for early Russia? Many people do not want to go back to the 90s. And now they are trying to stop at least at this level, at least on the achievements that they already have.

— 43% of citizens loyal to Putin declare the need to restore relations with Western countries. Does it mean that Russian anti-Western propaganda does not work?

— They saw everything with their own eyes: many Russians have visited the West, have friends there or felt the influence of the West at home. When all this was blocked for them, and they imagined themselves in a country close to North Korea, the Russians definitely did not want to live like that. Therefore, I think this is due to the fact that people want to return to the life that it was before 2022 or 2014 — to travel, fly and communicate without problems.

But the problem is different, not that they want it, but whether they can? The mindset has not changed. If the survey said that yes, we admit our mistakes, we agree that we need to somehow change our mindset, then it would be, of course, very cool. In fact, this is not a change of understanding, but just another mimicry under the circumstances.

I lived in the Soviet Union and found it at a more or less normal age. I remember what was said on TV, what was discussed at school and what was said at home — these were completely different things. And now in Russia the same thing — at home people say one thing, at work another, and from the TV they hear a third. And this difference begins to simply produce dissonance in their minds.

Therefore, I believe that propaganda is simply losing. Not because it is inefficient, but because it is enough to go to the store and see what is happening there. That's it.

— Should we expect the Kremlin to pay attention to these figures?

— This is a very interesting situation, because without the permission of the Kremlin, firstly, these figures would not have appeared. Secondly, the Kremlin is very afraid of any sociological changes for the worse. It's not just that they, for example, do not launch mobilization. They are afraid that sociology will not be on their side. Even though they will draw any elections there, they will raise any percentage.

The Kremlin can put anyone anywhere, but they are especially afraid of internal strife that may break out at some point. If the boiler does not discharge steam from time to time, it may rupture from the accumulating pressure.

Therefore, they very clearly control the release of this pressure. I think that they are closely monitoring the situation and are afraid that it will not go to some other level.

— What can this level be?

— A social explosion, not some kind of socio-political, social or civil one. Social explosion. If you look at the history of how riots took place in Russia, they, as a rule, did not occur due to the fact that someone was arrested or someone was not allowed to say something, and even more so not for freedom of speech and expression. As a rule, vodka ran out or there was no bread. Such a social explosion.

I just remember the reaction to the egg scandal. It was such a wide resonance, where there were some soldiers' mothers with their captive children.

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