Black Sea Fleet Of Half-Decay

The key question is not even whether Admiral Sokolov is alive.

The key question of recent days is not whether Admiral Viktor Sokolov, commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, is still alive. The key question is whether the Russian Black Sea Fleet itself is able to function normally.

The myth of its invulnerability has been seriously undermined during the Russian-Ukrainian war, beginning with the loss of the cruiser Moskva and ending with an attack on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in occupied Sevastopol. The fleet is losing ships and its commanders are having to hide from missile attacks. The very logistics of fleet management have been disrupted - at the beginning of the war, Vladimir Putin hardly expected such a scenario.

On the contrary, it is obvious that the Russian Black Sea Fleet has played an important role: missile attacks on Ukraine, destruction of its ports, destabilisation of the Black Sea and its transformation into Russia's "internal sea", whatever NATO countries may think about it.

Of course, I would not say that the fleet is not up to the tasks assigned to it. We hear air alerts and see Russia methodically destroying Ukraine's port infrastructure.

When Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the amount of grain exported not only from sea ports but also from river ports decreased significantly. In addition, the situation has led to an unprecedented crisis in relations between Ukraine and its neighbours, most notably between Ukraine and Poland. And despite conciliatory statements, it is clear that the situation will not improve in the foreseeable future.

I am sure that none of this would have happened - at least on this scale - had it not been for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. But its capabilities are diminishing by the day. Yes, so far we are talking more about localised capabilities in certain areas of the Black Sea. But even this, I think, is enough to notice that even now the fleet is in the process of semi-decay. The crews of its ships are afraid of underwater drones, and its commanders are afraid of missile strikes. These are no longer the self-confident "pirates of the XXI century" we saw in the days of the occupation of Crimea and the naval blockade of Ukraine. These are "pirates" who have to defend themselves and dodge blows.

That is why, according to experts, it is so important that the attacks on the infrastructure of the Black Sea Fleet continue. So that ships and logistics centres are destroyed. So that Sevastopol is no longer a safe place for the occupiers. It is a good thing that Ukraine's allies have no objection to the use of the weapons they supply to attack the occupied territories. Even if, as a result of such systematic attacks, the leadership and ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet "only" have to move to Novorossiysk, I think it will be a completely different fleet. With different capabilities and ambitions.

By the way, understanding this, the Russian leadership did everything to keep the fleet in Sevastopol. Not only so that the Black Sea Fleet could play its sinister role in the occupation of Sevastopol itself and the whole of Crimea. But also because the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea is a global fleet. And the Black Sea Fleet in Novorossiysk is a local fleet. And Moscow seems to know that.

That's why they understand in Ukraine how important it is that in the future the Russian fleet has to go to Novorossiysk and the Ukrainian fleet has to come to Sevastopol. I think this is something that could give Ukraine the weight of a global power in the Black Sea and make Russia forget about its Black Sea ambitions. And yes, it's all about Crimea. Of course it is.

But those are issues for the future. In the meantime, I'm sure it's important for Ukraine to keep pushing the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol - so that that future will definitely come.

Vitaly Portnikov, Krym Realii