No one will restrain the Belarusians from bringing order to their country with arms.
The second day of fights in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation. Russia’s infosphere reacted to this with panic.
Is there military significance or just media and psychological effects in the developments and the raid? Journalists of the Charter97.org website addressed the question to reserve Major General Viktor Yagun, former deputy head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU).
– It depends on the point of view. On the part of the official authorities of Ukraine, this is very powerful support for us in terms of the fact that part of the Russian Federation is in such turbulence. The Russians are definitely not up to the war with Ukraine right now. They are distracted by putting their territory in order, defending the border, and so on. There is even information that some of the troops that were in Belarus are beginning to move towards the Russian border, towards the Smolensk region. I think that this is exactly the part of the troops that will be used to cover the Russian-Ukrainian border. This is also beneficial for us because it prevents the tension in Belarus, these reserve troops will definitely not get to the eastern front. This has a positive effect for Ukraine in military terms.
The information-psychological blow to the reputation of the Russian government can hardly be overestimated. All the people of the world will now talk about the instability of power in Russia, about the impossibility of maintaining the beautiful structure of this regime, and about its inability to defend its borders. And their borders are just like a sieve - some small unit with minimal armoured support was able to capture in 8 hours the same territory that Wagner PMC tried to capture for 9 months. This is generally incomparable, so the Russian Federation also suffers reputational loss. This is from Ukraine's side. On the part of Russia, namely the Russian opposition, this showed that there is another, free Russia that does not want to live according to the bandit laws adopted in the Kremlin. And they are ready to defend their ideas with arms.
– A video from 2014 is circulating online: Putin, after the annexation of Crimea, said there that “they were not there” and that “one could buy a military uniform of the Russian army at any military store”. Now Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky's office, is joking about a tank bought at a military store. In philosophical terms, can we call 'karma" the developments in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation?
– It's a “boomerang”. This shows the two-way traffic. Once upon a time, Strelkov’s group of 25 fighters appeared in Sloviansk, and he claims that it was he who “pulled the trigger of the war”. As a person who was directly involved in the first battle on April 13, 2014, I can confirm that we then lost the first person in this war, who was killed by the enemy saboteurs. Let them now tell where these saboteurs came from.
By the way, all of them [Russian volunteers participating in operations on the territory of the Russian Federation - Ed.] have Russian passports, unlike Strelkov, who came to our territory with a Russian passport. Russian soldiers in the Belgorod region use the gear and weapons that, for the most part, are seized from the Russian army. Karma is like that.
– Can such "karma" overtake Lukashenka?
– This will happen if the Belarusian regime crosses the border or some other limits even a centimeter deep, declares war or something like that. If there are any particular moves on his part, then I do not exclude that the Belarusian volunteers will repeat the raid and reach Minsk. It will be much worse because the people of Belarus are still not like the Russians. The Russian government, by the way, understand this. That’s the reason not to annex it completely. I think no one will restrain the Belarusians from entering the territory of Belarus with arms and putting things in order there.