AFU Are Tactically ‘Trapping’ Russian Troops Near Bakhmut1
- 24.03.2023, 8:47
The entire group of Wagner PMCs may get encircled.
Russia suddenly began to redeploy its troops to a new axis. It seems that the enemy is going to create a "new Bakhmut" because this is exactly what its actions near Avdiivka resemble.
Reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, pilot-instructor and military expert Roman Svitan commented on this situation for 24 Channel.
The Russians are suddenly redeploying their troops
Now the Russians are urgently redeploying their troops to Avdiivka. The authorities even urged civilians to immediately leave the city.
The expert explained that the primary task of the Russians near Avdiivka is to move the Ukrainian troops away from the city. After all, Ukrainian artillery can reach from here even to Donetsk and Makiivka.
“The entire Donetsk group is under artillery attack. It is very painful for them because they can not accommodate either in the city or in the suburbs. That is why they are trying to push our military back,” Roman Svitan explained.
True, the Russians have been trying to do this for 9 years of the war. However, nothing comes out, because the city is located on a hill, and the defence line in there was built very duly.
The officer also explained a number of reasons why the Russians were never able to capture Avdiivka or at least encircle the city:
“The flat terrain around: the Donetsk airport, in particular, located between Donetsk and Avdiivka. The city is located on a hill;
The impossibility of cutting off supply routes: a lot of mechanisms for supplying ammunition and military equipment have been created there for nine years;
The difficult terrain of the Karlovsky reservoir: one of the banks here is very high, and it is occupied by Ukrainian artillery, which controls and protects the area from encirclement.
Over the past year, every bush has been shot in there. You don’t even have to wake up an artillerymen - they will target any place there with the required number of shells even with closed eyes,” the reserve colonel is convinced.
Will the counteroffensive start in Bakhmut?
Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskiy said that the Russians are losing significant forces in Bakhmut, and soon the Ukrainian army will take advantage of this opportunity.
Roman Svitan emphasizes that the Russians decided to carry out their offensive at a very inconvenient moment. This is because there were no severe frosts in winter, and spring began with rains.
“The soil is wet, their vehicles cannot really pass. Therefore, the Russians carry out all these offensive actions for the most part at the expense of manpower, and any manpower has such a problem - soldiers can get tired,” explains Roman Svitan.
According to him, the Russians can try to advance for a month - one and a half, but after that, the human body will simply not withstand it. It is this moment that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can now catch.
“At the same time, when it’s getting dry little by little, it will be possible to advance, to carry out large-scale offensive operations. But it is unlikely that we will do this directly against those Russian troops who are now trying to put pressure on Bakhmut,” emphasizes the colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
He suggests two other likely axes for the Ukrainian counteroffensive:
from Belohorivka to Bakhmut,
from Belohorivka to Popasna.
Bakhmut, attack axes
The military expert is convinced that the Russians on their own created the prerequisites for the tactical encirclement of their forces near Bakhmut. After all, it is only a little more than 20 kilometres from Belohorivka to Bakhmut.
“Any movement 10 kilometers from Bakhmut, 10 kilometers southwest of Belohorivka is a threat to encircle the entire Wagner PMC. They understand this very well,” said Roman Svitan.
The generals of the Ukrainian army also understand this. Therefore, they are just waiting for the right moment: to advance with tanks and work not only on hard-surfaced roads, but also in the fields.