Ukrainian Army Carries Out Counteroffensive In Zaporizhzhia Oblast

The AFU attacked on two fronts.

The AFU conducted a counteroffensive operation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, while occupants want to encircle Avdiivka.

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The situation in Luhansk and Kharkiv Oblast

On March 23, Russian troops launched limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian troops launched unsuccessful ground attacks near Synkivka (8 km northeast of Kupyansk), Makiivka (22 km northwest of Kreminna), Bilohorivka (10 km south of Kreminna), Verkhnekamenske (21 km south of Kreminna).

The British Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian troops are likely aiming to capture Kupyansk, extend their security zone westward, and add the Oskol River to their defensive lines. Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for Ukraine's Eastern Group of Forces, stated that Ukrainian forces have destroyed many pieces of new Russian equipment over the past few weeks as Russian forces use more regular forces and armored vehicles in the Lyman and Kupyansk direction.

Geolocation footage published on March 23 indicated a limited Russian offensive southeast of Bilohorivka. A Russian military blogger claimed that Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensives near Terniv (17 km west of Kreminna), Makiivka and Bilohorivka, but advanced to the Severskyi Donets River near Serebryansky Forest (10 km south of Kreminna).

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov released footage claiming that Akhmat Special Forces commander and Apti Alaudinov, deputy commander of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, captured a Ukrainian prisoner of war near Bilohorivka.

Russian troops continue building fortifications in the border areas of Bryansk and Kursk regions. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops continue to fortify terrain in the Bryansk and Kursk regions and conduct indefinite demonstrative actions in the Belgorod region attempting to prevent Ukrainian troops from moving to other sections of the front line.

Fighting in Donbas

On March 23, Russian forces continued to attack Bakhmut and its outskirts. The commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, stated that Wagner units remain the main Russian forces operating in the Bakhmut direction, and they have not yet lost their offensive capabilities.

Syrsky noted that although the Wagner forces still have a numerical advantage on the front lines, Ukrainian forces continue to exhaust mercenaries, which will allow Ukrainian forces to conduct indefinite offensive operations. Colonel Serhiy Cherevatiy, a spokesman for Ukraine's Eastern Group of Forces, said Russian and Ukrainian forces had 35 contacts along the entire front line in Bakhmut; 29 of those were in or near the city.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported ongoing position fighting in Bakhmut, and Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults northwest of Bakhmut in Oleksandro-Shultino and Bohdanivka; northeast of Bakhmut in Vasyukivka; and south of Bakhmut in Predtechyne. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces had completely cleared the industrial zone in northern Bakhmut and continued fighting in central and southern Bakhmut.

Russian "war correspondents" claimed that fighting continued southwest of Bakhmut in Ivanovske and that Wagner forces were attacking Krakhmalne northwest of Bakhmut. Geolocation footage released on March 22 shows Ukrainian forces firing at neighboring Russian forces on the west bank of the Bakhmutka River, likely indicating that some Russians have forced a crossing over the river.

On March 23, Russian forces continued to attack Ukrainian positions around Avdiivka. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked north of Avdiivka, Novokalynove, Stepne, Lastochkine, and Berdychiv; west of Avdiivka in Severne, Vodyane, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske; and Avdiivka itself.

Russian sources claimed that Russian artillery had established fire over the Ukrainian supply route to Orlivka. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces had cleared the western edge of Novobakhmutivka (about 12 km northeast of Avdiivka) and continued to advance on Pervomayske and Severne from the south.

Another Russian source expressed doubt that Russian forces had captured Novobakhmutovka and Stepnoe, and noted that Russian forces were also fighting for Kamenka (about 5 km northeast of Avdiivka). The Russian source claims that it is too early to report on Russian attempts to create a cauldron around Avdiivka and operational successes in the area.

A Russian "war correspondent" claimed that Russian forces had advanced in the direction of Novokalynove and reached an unspecified hill in the area. Russian sources also claimed that units of the Russian 200th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps of the Northern Military District) attacked Tonenke (7 km northwest of Avdiivka).

Russian forces continue to form new brigades in the Avdiivka direction from units of the so-called DPR inherited and mobilized. A Russian source claims that the former 9th Separate Mariupol-Khingan Airborne Assault Regiment of Marines of the so-called DPR was re-formed into the Russian 9th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade and is now operating in the Avdiivka direction.

The so-called DPR reported that units of the 14th Artillery Kalmius Brigade and the 1st Slavyansk Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR are operating in the Avdiivka direction.

ISW has previously registered numerous appeals from Russian mobilized servicemen regarding their subordination to units of the so-called DPR, indicating that the Russian military command is likely reinforcing and/or expanding units of the so-called DPR with mobilized personnel. The Russian military renews World War II-era brigades, such as the Red Army's 9th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade.

The Russian Defense Ministry may form some of the new divisions it announced on January 17 by formally integrating the interim forces of the so-called DPR and LPR into the Russian Armed Forces, rather than creating entirely new divisions from scratch. The current set of observed force generation efforts indicates that the Russian military command obviously prioritizes the formation of motorized infantry units over the rebuilding of tank units.

ISW has not monitored the rebuilding or re-use of a number of elite tank regiments and brigades destroyed in combat, and the restoration of disbanded Red Army motorized rifle units. Not rebuilding current tank units may prove that the Russian Army lacks the tanks needed to re-establish tank units.

Russian forces continued their offensive west of Donetsk. They did not resume their offensive near Ugledar as of March 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Mar'ynka and Pobeda, which are 22 and 25 kilometers southwest of Donetsk. Russian sources repeated similar reports.

A Russian source claims that units of the 155th Russian Marine Brigade continue to carry out combat missions near Ugledar, and recently published footage from the area indicating that Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in position fighting near Ugledar.

Southern Axis

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that all Russian units stationed in Nova Kakhovka had left the town as of March 22. The wording of the Ukrainian General Staff report mentions that Russian forces "withdrew". Some observers suggest the Russian rotation is not interpretable. Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian troops remained in the city. ISW did not witness any visual confirmation to support any of the claims. ISW believes that the Russian military still controls Nova Kakhovka.

Ukrainian forces continue to raid over the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and continue to strike Russian positions on the eastern (left) bank of the river. Geolocation footage of the fighting of March 20 shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian forces operating in the southeast of Bolshoy Potyomkin Island.

Geolocated combat videos published on March 23 show Ukrainian drones striking Russian positions near Vinrassadnik on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River. The head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration of Ukraine, Serhiy Khlan, expanded on the statement of Kherson's occupation chairman, Vladimir Saldo, that Russian troops have tripled their numbers on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Khlan criticized the Russian troops' defensive measures, claiming that they had established only three lines of defense.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops were conducting a counteroffensive in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A Russian "war correspondent" stated on March 22 that Ukrainian troops controlled about half of Novodonylivka (53 kilometers southeast of Zaporizhzhia city) and that the village used to be an unoccupied gray zone. Another military blogger stated on March 23 that Ukrainian troops were conducting a counteroffensive in the direction of Robotyne (66 km southeast of Zaporizhzhia city).

Russian forces regularly shelled Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.

ISW also reported that Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, questioned the existence of "Nazis" on Ukrainian territory that Moscow constantly talks about and refuted the Kremlin's thesis that Russia is at war with NATO.