But the West will demand that he leave power.
Lukashenka went to the United Arab Emirates, where the World Summit on Climate Change is being held under the auspices of the UN.
It is noteworthy that the UAE is a country that has signed the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, which has already issued an arrest warrant for Putin for the kidnappings of Ukrainian children, in which Lukashenka is also involved. As is known, the ICC does not always issue its warrants publicly.
Can Lukashenka get caught and be arrested? The Charter97.org website spoke about this with military and political expert, head of the Ukrainian Center for Military Legal Studies, Oleksandr Musiyenko:
— Yes, maybe. It seems to me that the real reason why Lukashenka has now flown to the UAE is that he is trying to find ways to have at least some Western contacts.
After all, there will be representatives from Western countries at the summit. So Lukashenka is trying to somehow find an escape route, because he understands that Putin is doing poorly.
Now we are seeing how the CSTO is being destroyed. I mean the demarche of Armenia. Against this background, many are beginning to understand (including Lukashenka) that the bet on the Kremlin did not work. So he is trying to find at least some options for agreements with the West.
But since Lukashenka is involved in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, I don’t think anyone will contact him now. It is obvious that the West will set conditions for him: leaving, holding democratic elections, responsibility, and so on. Without this, no one will deal with Lukashenka.
In general, the participation of the Belarusian dictator in the climate summit is connected precisely with this. After all, where is the fight against climate change, and where is Lukashenka? Maybe he has a garden with organic produce. He once treated Steven Seagal to a carrot, but he’s not interested in climate change.
— Who can Lukashenka meet with at such forums?
— With many people. You see, there's quite a lot going on behind the scenes. And these will not necessarily be the first persons. There may even be non-public figures playing a minor role. The task is to convey a message, send signals, and this can be done not necessarily through top officials, but through representatives of some delegations.
By the way, Lukashenka has already done this. Remember, once back in 2022, the late Makei went to a meeting of the UN General Assembly. At the event site, he was quite active, trying to establish contacts with the USA, Britain, and France. But then Makei died suddenly, and that was it.
Now Lukashenka trusts few people from his inner circle, because many there are in touch with the Kremlin and Lubyanka. Therefore, he is looking for ways, realizing that Putin will drag him to the bottom completely. This is the real purpose of visiting the UAE.
— Should we expect more active steps from Ukraine to bring Lukashenka to justice for the abductions of Ukrainian children?
— I hope that these steps will be taken, because this is a very painful issue for us. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky focused on it. We have public organizations that are responsible for child abductions and actively monitor everything.
My position is that Lukashenka must share responsibility with Putin for what happened. This cannot be left without responsibility, so we are working accordingly.