Political Scientist: Lukashenka Got Global Black Spot

The dictator and his entourage are seriously nervous.

The Belarusian authorities continue to assure that they are “exceptional humanists” - in particular, regarding the deportation of Ukrainian children from temporarily occupied territories “for recovery”.

Accusations of complicity in forced and illegal deportation were reinforced by the reaction of international structures: the European Parliament, in a recent resolution on Belarus, called on the International Criminal Court in The Hague to issue an arrest warrant for Lukashenka.

Although official Minsk firstly pretended that all this was of little concern to them and that the activities aimed at “improving” the children would continue, the next steps showed that the Belarusian authorities understand that the shadow of The Hague is not so unreal and is very unpleasant for them.

At the end of September 2023, the Belarusian MFA held a briefing for foreign diplomats accredited in Belarus. Moreover, they invited representatives of foreign embassies to visit the “children’s resting places” personally and talk to them and their accompanying persons.

Kyiv soon responded to these measures: the Ukrainian MFA in its official comment called on foreign diplomats to “refrain from participating in the propaganda trip of the Belarusian regime.” Presumably, this diplomatic visit should take place on October 4, when foreign ambassadors will have a meeting with children who were taken from Russian-occupied Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk.

In addition, the department recalled that work to bring to justice those involved in the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children will continue both at the level of the national investigation and as part of the examination at the International Criminal Court.

Filin [an analytical project of the Salidarnasc news publisher - Ed.] asked Ukrainian political scientist Yevhen Mahda, the Executive Director at the Institute of World Policy (Kyiv, Ukraine), about the consequences for Lukashenka and his entourage.

– There will be no good I think, – the expert assesses the measures of the Belarusian regime. – After all, we all understand that the children could not decide for themselves where they should be.

The position of the Belarusian authorities (as well as the Russian authorities, by the way) is to say that they just took the children out of the conflict zone, and they can all come back. But how did the fighting begin? It was Russian aggression. They attacked the neighbouring country. And no one in Ukraine has forgotten about this. They did not forget that Belarus was the starting point for the attack.

I think that foreign diplomats, among others, clearly understand this situation and will act quite actively in that direction to fight for the return of Ukrainian children home.

However, proposals to bring to justice all those involved in the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children were made several months ago, but their practical implementation will require a lot of time.

– Is it possible that Minsk counts on just talking about The Hague and the ICC warrant? Like it will calm down later. Is it possible for them to sit it out?

– I believe there are significant differences between the actions of Putin, who communicated openly, on camera, and arranged working meetings with Lvova-Belova, and the actions of Lukashenka who acted through Paralympic athlete Talai deals with children’s issues.

The degree of direct Lukashenka’s guilt is much less than Putin’s deeds. But it is absolutely obvious that the International Criminal Court is also paying attention to the actions of the Belarusian regime in this matter.

Naturally, Lukashenka is worried. Accordingly, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is worried too. So, they are taking appropriate measures.

Remember, Lukashenka always spoke about “three fraternal peoples.” And now he is actually destroying the declared “trinity” with his hands, preferring Russia and acting against Ukraine - and in this situation, he looks like a traitor.

Also, the case with children is very sensitive. Also, did not visit a single country after the arrest warrant for him and Lvova-Belova. The public almost forgot about the “Children's Rights Commissioner”. After all, an arrest warrant for the forcible deportations of children is, in fact, a global Black Spot. Everyone, including Putin and Lukashenka, clearly understands this.