Yuriy Butusov: There Will Come 'Domino Effect' For Lukashenka

There are a lot of passionate people in Belarus.

Ukrainian journalist and editor-in-chief of the Censor.net website Yuri Butusov shared with Charter97.org his analysis of the situation on the southern front in Ukraine and explained how the Kremlin's defeat will influence the future of Belarus.

- The Ukrainian command has announced the start of a counter-offensive by the AFU against Kherson. A few days ago, it was announced that the first Russian defence line in the south had been broken through, but details of the operation were not disclosed. At the same time, experts give different assessments of what is happening. What do you think is happening on the southern front?

- If someone writes something on the Internet about combat operations, it does not mean that it has anything to do with real combat operations. That is, someone said something, someone has their own emotional coloring of certain events. In Kherson region, as well as in other parts of the front, both in Donbas and in Kharkiv region, there is a fight for tactical initiative, a positional war. There is intense, fierce fighting everywhere.

- On what does the possibility of full-scale offensive operations by Ukrainian forces depend?

- It depends on many factors: organization, management, availability of ammunition, military equipment and on the enemy in many ways as well. So there are many complex factors in war that influence the course of combat operations. At this point it must be said that the Russian army is still superior in equipment, artillery, aviation, ammunition of all kinds. Therefore the fighting is very hard in these conditions.

- Despite such difficult conditions, we see certain successes of the AFU in the southern direction. What targets could be a priority for the Ukrainian army if they manage to knock the Russians out of Kherson?

- First off, we need to knock them out of Kherson...

- What could the loss of Kherson and the south of Ukraine mean for Russia's political leadership and top military commanders?

- I don't think this direction should be our only target. It will backfire on them when Ukraine liberates its lands with weapons in their hands. Not only the south.

- How likely is the scenario where Putin wants to use Lukashenka's army as a "steamroller" in the north of Ukraine to reduce tension on the southern front? Has the likelihood of a new land invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus increased?

- Every month the probability of such an invasion is decreasing. Ukraine has conducted mobilization, is increasing the level of its army's fighting ability, and is expanding the supply of various types of weapons. Our army's fighting ability is increasing, so it's extremely disadvantageous scenario for Lukashenka to enter the battle, to throw the Belarusian conscript army against the Ukrainian units, which already have considerable experience in modern warfare. Politically, it is much more advantageous to him to negotiate with Putin over the possibility of using military bases and military equipment against Ukraine and selling arms to Russia. Now the entire Belarusian military industry is working for the Russian Federation, actively providing it with military bases and exporting necessary goods.

Lukashenka has always played the role of a trader, bargaining for some influence in the Kremlin. It has been most profitable. Therefore, it is beneficial for Lukashenka's regime to prolong the war in Ukraine. Putin will not touch him while we are at war, and it will be easier for him to build relations with the Kremlin. And dragging Lukashenka into the war is dangerous, because the consequences for the country will be very grave. There will be enormous human losses; there will also be political consequences.

The main thing is that if he gets involved in a war, he will become even more dependent on Russia, he will become a mere appendage of Putin. And if such a need arises, it will be much easier to remove the Belarusian dictator, there will be no need to bargain with anyone. Lukashenka will become a hostage of the situation as soon as he gets involved in the war. Therefore I think he will continue to avoid this situation, in order to remain useful to Putin in providing his army and supporting aggression by indirect means.

- If the Belarusian regime does not take part in the land invasion, but limits itself to the current format of complicity in the aggression, what will the strategic defeat of Russia in Ukraine mean for it?

- Lukashenka, as the man who has seized power in the country, has no prospects. Neither he nor the successors to the Belarusian throne that the dictator has built for himself in Belarus have any prospects. Changes in Belarus will start immediately after Russia's defeat in Ukraine. After that, numerous processes, which will lead to changes in the post-Soviet space, will be set in motion. The balance of power will change. Ukraine will become a new centre of influence, which will lead to changes, including in Belarus.

- What will be the role of a free Belarus in this new political reality?

- Changes are made by the nations who put forward certain leaders. Therefore it all depends on the people's rise. We saw that there are many passionate people in Belarus, too. Lots of Belarusians are fighting on the side of Ukraine, absolutely heroically, professionally. We saw that when the situation arises such a considerable European nation as Belarus is able to generate enough leaders. And the actions of these leaders will define a strategy, a way. Now we do not see it; now there is a struggle not to allow Russia to destroy democracy in Ukraine. And then, there will be a domino effect: the fall of Russian influence and Putin's inability to destroy Ukraine physically will lead to the fall of political influence in other countries that he is holding hostage. This includes Belarus, Kazakhstan and other countries.

If you like this article, you can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL 97 1160 2202 0000 0002 1671 1123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]