If Lukashenka goes to war, he will face the fate of Milosevic.
Thousands of Belarusians are ready to defend Ukraine with weapons in their arms. A fighter of the Belarus tactical group said it in an interview with Charter97.org.
- Can we now talk about the actual occupation of Belarus by Russian troops?
- This is a partial loss of sovereignty, which ends with the onset of hostilities. When hostilities begin against Ukraine, there will be no talk about the sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus, as the dictator and the army will be involved in a single plan of the General Staff of the armed forces of the Russian Federation. And if he tries to make any move against it, he will, as he likes to put it, "according to the laws of war, in the name of the revolution", be quickly replaced or eliminated, and everything will go on.
Most likely, he will move within the canvas of the unfolding events associated with the war. Finally, Putin and Lukashenka will be declared war criminals. They know from the example of their friends - Milosevic, Gaddafi, Hussein, and so on what happens to such people.
The army disgraced itself by actually surrendering its independence without a single shot. Moreover, that part of the army, the special operations forces that took part in the punitive actions to suppress civilian protests in Belarus. They deserve the consequences that will befall them. As the saying goes, they have shot themselves in the foot. Now some of them will be sent to Ukraine.
In principle, they are welcome here. The combat Major General Nikolyuk, call sign "The Wind", stands in the Belarusian direction. He is one of the most talented Ukrainian officers. I met him at the front in Donbas. The invaders will face very big surprises here in Ukrainian Polesye. I will remind you that it was Nikolyuk's brigade that captured GRU soldiers in 2015 near Shchastie.
I think the Belarusian army will have to share the shame of waging an aggressive war against its neighbour.
- How seriously is Ukraine considering the possibility of a strike against Kyiv from the Belarusian direction?
- I can't say how seriously. But this is the 21st century. Everyone can see that the preconditions for such a blow occur. The forces and means are being accumulated there all the time. They are trying, of course, to disguise it. Some of the columns drive around without plates. This is all tracked. New airfields are being deployed near the border. New camps are being set up, roads open. Some of them were opened beforehand, years ago.
Logically, if Putin has the goal to liquidate the Ukrainian statehood, he will have to create levers of pressure on the central Ukrainian government. Because there is no way to mention any seizure of Kyiv in three days or thirty-three days. This is ridiculous. Only such a lineshooter like our blue-fingered man can say that. Anyone who understands a little bit in military matters realizes that it is impossible even for the most modern army to take the capital of Ukraine without destroying it physically, as it happened to Grozny during the Chechen wars. Especially for the Russian army, which is not one of them.
There is no panic in Ukraine right now, no decadent sentiment a la "the jig is up" and so on. Everyone is prepared and extremely focused. There are no expectations that everything will go quickly and smoothly. But at least we are ready. The task of Ukrainians is simply to repel aggression, there is no other choice. Nobody is going to run away or retreat.
- How did Western weapons affect the balance of forces?
- The point is that these weapons have not yet been used. They have strengthened Ukraine. This is a fact. We got weapons systems like the British-Swedish NLAW. This is an anti-tank grenade launcher. It is perfect for fighting in cities and settlements. Few armies in the world have such weapons. We also have Turkish Bayraktar strike drones. Not just Bayraktars. They have proved their effectiveness against Russian weapons in Syria, as well as in the conflict in Azerbaijan and Armenia. All the lauded Russian Pantsir and air defence systems could not stop them.
Some of these weapons will be used in a full-scale invasion when it is already clear that regular troops are entering. It is inexpedient to use it now against some "miners and tractor drivers," as Putin says, in the Donbas. Among other things, this is done to avoid revealing new tactical capabilities of this weapon
- Are the territorial defence forces, increasingly discussed now, a strong instrument?
- What is the army of any state? It is largely a reflection of society. Ukrainian society is preparing for the fact that they will have to help their army in some way. It follows from the polls and what you can observe. Of course, the main burden to fend off aggression will fall on the regular forces.
As for territorial defence, volunteers and so on, I can assure you that there are practically no rifled weapons and ammunition left in the gun stores. Because people just bought it all out.
As for the Ukrainian Polesye direction from Belarus, every self-respecting Ukrainian has a rifled gun there, and some have several. People know their area, all the roads and trails. Every UTC (Ukrainian Territorial Community) creates territorial defence formations. It means that theoretically, invaders may face resistance in every settlement, including large villages. I think it will be this way.
- Are there many Belarusians in Ukraine who are ready to help in the fight against invaders?
- Compared to 2014-2015, there has been a significant increase of Belarusians here because of the events of 2020. The Belarusian diaspora has increased significantly. If a few hundred Belarusians fought on the side of Ukraine then, there will be considerably more now. And the prerequisites for the creation of a volunteer Belarusian unit are already being created.
I think Belarusians will stand up for the honor of their nation and people. Unfortunately, official Belarus is now taking the side of the aggressor.
The Ukrainians treat the Belarusians kindly. Without excessive pathos, one can say they are the two most fraternal nations in spirit, culture, and so on. Now everyone sees who's in power in Belarus. It does not affect ordinary Belarusians. Because both the Ukrainian media and ordinary refugees from Belarus have already told the truth. Many people have their eyes opened.
Before the events of 2020, Lukashenka was quite a popular politician in Ukraine, despite all his oddities. And now the image of him as a "strong manager" who is a "brilliant economist" and so on, has simply crumbled. Ordinary people who are not engaged in politics do not have any illusions about Belarus.
Belarus is officially treated through the prism of impending aggression. The Ukrainian mass media inform the population that troops are being accumulated on the Belarusian side. Hence, there is such an attitude.
Ordinary Belarusians, especially those who will help Ukraine fend off this aggression, are treated well.
- What processes will Putin and Lukashenka initiate, if they decide to start aggression?
- A sad outcome awaits them. As I said before, they will be declared war criminals with all the consequences that follow. To say nothing of the economic collapse that awaits them. They will be rogue countries. The population of Belarus, which has a phobia of war as one of its main ones, should prepare for the most negative consequences if it starts.
We should also understand that the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian government are no longer in 2014. In the event of an attack, Ukraine will use all forces and means, all military activities that have already been prepared. If necessary, combat operations can move to the territory of the enemy. Whoever he is. All airfields of hopping, launch platforms for possible missile attacks, shellings will be a legitimate target for the Ukrainian army.
Total resistance awaits the enemy. Nothing good awaits them here. They will just bleed profusely here. All these absurd claims that they will reach the English Channel are laughable. Nobody even wants to comment on them.
- Can the Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine become a basis for the army of the new Belarus?
- It all depends on how the war ends. One way or another, it will be a different geopolitical layout. Russia will no longer be the same. Let us not deny that right now the main threat to the independence of Belarus is the threat from the Russian Federation. The new army will rely on that. But the army is also a derivative of the economy. If we don't have a strong economy, there's no point in a strong army.
I like the Ukrainian model of army that rests on the contractual system. Only volunteers serve in the army. These are professional soldiers who sign contracts for several years.
Also, there is a mixed system. The population undergoes particular courses, regular military training camps and so on. Well, plus what Belarus needs is a system of territorial defence. I, for example, stand for the Swiss component, when the population has not only rifled weapons but something more interesting. A citizen who has undergone the necessary tests has the necessary weapons. One can put up a proper resistance in a matter of hours, if necessary.