New Year Present For Lukashenka

Is the Kremlin head's visit to Minsk a tribute to protocol?

Putin is due to fly to Minsk for talks with Belarusian ruler Aliaksandr Lukashenka on December 19. Putin and Lukashenka meet very often, but the Russian president has not been to Belarus for three years. And it is precisely this circumstance that begs the question whether Putin is going to force the Belarusian dictator to take direct part in the war against Ukraine.

The very raising of such a question is beyond political logic. If Putin needed to increase pressure on Lukashenka, he would be much more comfortable doing so on his own territory, not in Belarus.

The Russian president has plenty of opportunities to invite his Belarusian counterpart again and again, but Lukashenka has no real chance to refuse Putin's invitations; he is completely dependent on Moscow's political and economic support.

Then Why Is Putin Flying To Minsk?

First, there are not many places for Putin's official visits, and the "state activity" has to be shown. Each such visit for Putin is a demonstration that Russia's international isolation has failed, right now Russian leaders are communicating with "real friends". And Lukashenka is actually Russia's number one buddy.

Secondly, Putin's visit is necessary for Lukashenka himself.

After the rigged 2020 presidential election and the crackdown on popular protests, Lukashenka has even more problems with legitimacy than Putin.

Lukashenka is not recognised as president of Belarus by most countries of the civilised world; even their ambassadors do not present their credentials to him. Putin's visit to Minsk is another "demonstration of legitimacy", a visit of "the president to the president".

Lukashenka can also demonstrate that he is not the head of a subject of the Russian Federation, but the head of a real state, visited by Putin himself. Therefore, the trip of the Russian president to the Belarusian capital may be considered a New Year present from Putin to his closest ally in this brutal and aggressive war.

Thirdly, there is in fact a psychological component to the visit. While Kyiv really fears a new Russian attack on the Ukrainian capital already this winter and the participation of the Belarusian army in this attack, every new contact of the Belarusian and Russian rulers - especially in Minsk - makes the possibility of such an attack closer. Let Kyiv worry, Putin likes to create such causes for concern, it is also a "special operation" for him.

The Hatred Of Both Dictators Towards Ukraine

And that is exactly why another Putin trip should not be perceived as a political sensation.

The tandem of Putin and Lukashenka is dangerous for Ukraine: the hatred of both dictators for Ukraine and the readiness to try and prevent the Ukrainians from building their own state by force.

However, Putin's visit to Minsk, against this backdrop, remains more a tribute to protocol than an event designed to change the course of the war.

Vitaly Portnikov, Radio Svaboda