ISW Explains Why Putin Is Going To Minsk

Russia is starting a new stage of warfare.

Two dictators — Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin — are scheduled to meet today. It is probably part of efforts to create informational conditions for a new stage of the war against Ukraine. This is stated in a recent report by American analysts from the Institute for the Study of War.

The ISW experts quote commander of the United Forces of the AFU Serhiy Naev, that during the negotiations in Minsk, the Russian president will raise the topic of wider participation of the Belarusian army in further Russian aggression.

Naev also noted that Putin held a meeting with the military command of the Russian Federation on December 17, at which both immediate and medium-term goals of the war were discussed.

“Taken together, Putin's meeting with the Russian command, Shoigu's alleged front-line visit and the meeting between Putin and Lukashenka testify to a new stage in the presentation, planning and conduct of war and may foretell the resumption of offensive operations against Ukraine in the coming months”, ISW analysts suggest.

At the same time, the Institute for the Study of War is convinced that the Russian army, even reinforced by the Belarusian armed forces, is not capable of preparing and conducting effective large-scale mechanized offensive operations in the next few months.

“The manpower, which the Russian Federation is forming from mobilized reservists and the annual autumn call-up cycle, will not be sufficiently prepared for quick and effective mechanized maneuvers. And the problem of maintaining the existing units equipped with tanks, artillery and other necessary things will not be solved in time to equip large new forces for offensive operations this winter,” the Institute for the Study of War emphasizes.