Ex-Chairman Of National Bank Of Belarus: Settlements With Belarus In Dollars Will Soon Be Stopped

The economic pressure on the regime will grow.

It's become known that Belarusian banks have had problems with payments through SWIFT. Clients of eight Belarusian banks complain about the problems en masse. Charter97.org asked ex-head of the National Bank of Belarus Stanislau Bahdankevich to assess the current economic situation in the country.

- What will be the consequences of problems with payments through SWIFT?

- First, settlements will slow down very seriously. Sure, you can transport money by bicycle or car. SWIFT makes it possible to make any settlements within the economy in minutes, or even seconds.

Moreover, due to U.S. sanctions, settlements in dollars will not be possible. Then it would be necessary to transfer money first to Moscow and then to some other country. This is not a complete stoppage of the economy, of course, but a huge slowdown, so there will be new difficulties in the economy, recession and stagnation will deepen.

- To date, Belarusians have taken billions of rubles out of deposits. What do you think, what is the reason for the outflow of deposits? Will this trend continue?

- The main reason for the outflow of deposits is the lack of trust in the authorities established today in Belarus, that is, in the illegitimate regime. People do not trust, because they know that the authorities can issue an order not to give back the currency to the owners, or they will forcibly start converting it into the national currency.

Another factor may be the impoverishment of people who withdraw money in order to live, to spend it for current needs and not for capital ones. After all, deposits are made for the future. This is insurance, as they say, just in case, and now it is in stockings, purses and beds. It all shows the instability of our economy because of the lack of confidence in the future among Belarusian citizens.

There may be more private reasons: for example, appeals of opposition leaders to withdraw deposits. Apparently, it has also influenced the people's sentiments to a certain extent. However, the main reason is the power, established in Belarus. It is illegitimate, not elected by the people and not accountable to the people.

- Experts believe that the National Bank of Belarus may find itself under sanctions, and therefore it will not be able to manage dollar assets. What will be the consequences?

- I've already said that the authorities can issue an order not to give back the money for a year or two years. They may give an order so that the depositors got back their dollar deposits in rubles. Meanwhile, the ruble will be depreciating.

Today, the ruble is more or less stable because the sanctions that have been imposed by Europe and the U.S., mainly concern future contracts, not the current ones. So far, money is still coming in, so all these economic sanctions are for the future. They will certainly have an impact, but in a month or later. We will all see a worsening of the situation for depositors, for the economy, and for the government.

- U.S. sanctions cut off the opportunity to bring foreign currency into the country, thus there will be a shortage of it to pay the national debt. What does this mean for the Belarusian authorities?

- We got small loans, mostly from the East, so I would not say it is fatal for the Belarusian authorities. However, if we are unable to repay some bank loans, given to Belarus, it may mean deterioration of the economic situation.

- How would you assess the latest sanctions against the regime in general? How much stronger are they than the previous ones?

- I believe that the sanctions are the strongest to date. Another thing is that they do not immediately cut Belarus and its economy from the civilized world. The effect of sanctions will be gradual. The sanctions are strong enough, and they will be increasing when they really start working.

Obviously, if there were no support from Putin and Russia, all this would end pretty soon. The Belarusian people would have gotten rid of the dictatorship faster. However, I'm sure that this regime will eventually fall. There is no doubt about it, it has no prospects.

Moreover, if Russian actors do not comply with American sanctions, that is, support this regime, then restrictions may be imposed on Russia as well. Therefore, I believe that a lot of Russian companies will comply with U.S. sanctions, which will make the pressure on the regime worse. That's what the recent sanctions are good about.