Belarus Recorded All-Time Low Employment

The flow of labour migrants will increase.

The processes in Belarus are opposed: people are finding it difficult to find work, while employers face challenges when hiring new employees, writes infobank.by. It causes dissonance. Why are there problems with employment in the country if there are a supply and demand of the labour force?

There is no contradiction here:

People finding it increasingly difficult to find jobs:

jobs that match their qualifications;

jobs that meet their wages and working conditions;

one that is within proximity;

Employers face challenges when hiring new employees:

employees with the skills and qualifications an employer needs;

employees who are ready to work in the conditions offered for the salary offered;

employees who don't require housing.

Moreover, these conditions of employees and employers increasingly do not meet any of the three points presented. That is why people have to look for a job abroad, where only the third condition is missing.

During crises and devaluations (which happens regularly in Belarus), when the level of dollar wages collapse, the flow of those leaving to earn money abroad increases sharply. The directions are different.

For Belarusians, it is primarily Moscow, the Moscow Region, and St. Petersburg. The level of wages and demand for workers of any qualification surpasses all other inconveniences there. For Ukrainians (especially from western regions) and Moldavians, it is Europe with its high salaries and good working and living conditions.

Prices per hour in the EU countries and not only

Recently, Belarusians wishing to work in their country under the conditions available have also faced problems of a political nature - those who are dissatisfied with the policy carried out in the country have difficulties at work.

They are often shown the door: if you do not agree with "the party's policy", resign. Teachers cannot work in education if they do not support the government.

According to the data of Belstat, 9 408 thousand people lived in Belarus in 2020. Belarus had approximately the same number of people in 1976.

It's disappointing to realize that the population of our country started decreasing after 1993, the maximum number of Belarusians was in 1993: 10,239,000 people.

Some countries, having a comparable or smaller population with Belarus, have increased the population. Uzbekistan looks most striking - an increase of more than three times in 60 years (!!!):

Given the deterioration of the demographic situation, we observe a negative trend in the labour market: the number of people involved in the economy is shrinking.

Now, it hits an all-time low: 4295,5 thousand people were engaged in the economy in January 2021, which is 0.8% less than in January 2020 (Belstat data).

There was a drop caused by the coronavirus pandemic last April-June. A partial recovery of employment in the economy followed after the "coronacrisis".

In January 2021, the number of those employed in the Belarusian economy fell to a record low, becoming less than 4.3 million people for the first time.

One often compares the current situation in the labour market in Belarus with Ukraine. Propagandists say that there is no more work in Ukraine after Maidan, and everyone went to the West as guest workers to "wash toilets".

Well, this is partly true: in 2014-16, Ukraine experienced catastrophic events that caused the gravest problems in its economy and finances, including a severe devaluation of the hryvnia, which brought down the dollar level of salaries there.

The flow of Ukrainians to other countries for work has increased dramatically. Especially in the western direction, thanks to the abolition of visas for entering Europe.

Now let's compare the current level of employment in Belarus and Ukraine.

The average annual number of people employed in the economy in 2020 (officially):

Belarus - 4.316 million people;

Ukraine - 15.996 million people.

The population (average annual in 2020) in the countries varies greatly:

Belarus - 9.3 million people;

Ukraine - 37.1 million people.

Percentage of people employed in the economy:

Belarus - 46.4%;

Ukraine - 43,1%.

As one can see, the difference is not so considerable to speak of a considerably better situation in Belarus than in Ukraine, while the demographic structure of the population is virtually identical.

Moreover, the Ukrainians who went to work abroad, there are many of them (hundreds of thousands, if not millions), are people of working age. It worsens the Ukrainian demographic statistics. Moreover, the visa-free regime made it easier for Ukrainians to travel to the West.

In the nearest future, the situation in the labour market in Belarus will only worsen. The economic crisis has begun, and the salaries are already falling in real and dollar terms.

The political crisis continues, and the political and ideological pressure of the present Belarusian authorities on the ordinary people is beyond the limit.

In Ukraine, salaries hit an all-time high. This year, they will come close to the Belarusian wages (now they are 15% lower). The minimum wage in Ukraine is already higher. Given a free country and market, including the labour one, the level of employment in Ukraine may be higher than in Belarus.

After all, the flow of labour migrants from Belarus will increase. And not only labour ones. Not only in the eastern direction.