The System Goes Berserk

In the near future, Belarus will be covered by a corruption tsunami.

If the power in Belarus does not change in 2021, the country may drown in a real corruption tsunami, after which it will be very, very difficult to recover.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka came to power in 1994 in the wake of the fight against corruption. He himself did nothing for this, but skillfully used the data of the media and law enforcement agencies to show how bad everything is and that it is urgently necessary to restore order.

Establishing order and fighting corruption was his main concern throughout his 26 years of rule. Many were imprisoned, often without an investigation. When it came to the fight against corruption, all the balances disappeared from the scales of Themis. In reality, these scales rarely even reached Themis, since they were weighed and evaluated at a much earlier stage. And Themis could only play the role of an extra in this performance. And even when the impossible happened, and the court nevertheless acquitted one of the accused of a corruption crime, I never heard that someone was punished for the fact that a person had been in vain behind bars for a year, one and a half, or two. The fight against corruption was a holy fight, and here the Belarusian law enforcement officers had a big carte blanche. And yet, even they were not allowed everything. This is not about the officially approved list of untouchable persons, criminal cases against whom can be initiated only with the permission of Lukashenka. There was also an unspoken list of persons whom Lukashenka distinguished, shook hands with, promoted for some merits. Persons who have somehow been particularly noted for loyalty, etc.

Yes, we have all heard about many criminal cases against persons very close to Lukashenka. And he himself has repeatedly stated that there are no untouchables for him. However, few people know how such cases were initiated.

There was and now is an established tacit practice to take such special persons only if didn't know their limits, that is, they "earned" too much and not according to their position. And even in such cases, these persons were not taken immediately, but at first, they were warned amicably: we know, stop, that's enough. And only when a person did not understand, hoping for his position and his patrons, he was imprisoned, proving in practice that there were no untouchables. Although, you can look at it from different angles... But the point, in this case, is different.

The situation in the country was saved by the fact that there were not many such untouchable persons to make up some kind of critical mass. Yes, they created various "schematoses," took millions away from their economies, but the system still worked somehow. Everyone knew the "rules" and therefore most of them tried not to be impudent. There were, of course, exceptions, and even people who had to be detained without warning: for example, when someone unreasonably decided to put his paw on a project controlled by Lukashenka. But on the whole, the system worked properly: the “inner circle” received special privileges and additional earning opportunities, and the main person - additional guarantees of loyalty and that a competitor would not get out of this circle like the devil out of a snuffbox. After all, when there is compromising evidence on a person, he is very easily manageable and, most importantly, predictable. But now the system has gone berserk.

Firstly, the number of special persons has increased significantly due to recent events in the country. There are so many “handsome men” alone, but there are also judges who made illegal decisions on political cases, as well as investigators, prosecutors... It is enough to look at the Unified Crime Registration Book maintained by the opposition. All these persons have actually confirmed their loyalty and now have a special status. They cannot be touched. And not only because of their loyalty but also because they present danger since they are the bearers-keepers of dangerous compromising evidence.

Secondly, each of the current especially loyal persons understands that they won't last a whole lot of time, that Lukashenka, at best, will serve five more years in his chair, and at worst he can leave at any moment. Today he is here, but tomorrow it may not be. This means that in the shortest possible time you need to prepare a financial parachute for yourself and your family in case the political situation changes. If the current "schematists" had years and years to build their financial well-being, and they knew that they can't be impudent and hurry, then the new growth of especially loyal persons has no time and does not know the rules. They need to squeeze the maximum out of their position in the shortest possible time. Those "handsome men" can quite easily organize brigades like the 90s and take business under the roof. And no one even dares to blather. Well, a businessman will go to the Internal Security Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and what will it give? Who will they believe, the "handsome men" or the businessman, about whom they will immediately say that he is one of the very bourgeois who supported the protest? And especially because Lukashenka is now very dissatisfied with business... Now everyone who goes against a particularly loyal person will be perceived as a protest henchman.

Or, for example, the military commissar of the Homel region, who received a charge of energy from Lukashenka and held a real rite of transferring it to his subordinates, and then to the security forces of the entire region. Now he can really take bribes from each conscript in order to get rid of the army. Or, for example, to knock out money to repair the military registration and enlistment office - he deserved it! - and put half the amount in his pocket. He can implement any scheme, and no one dares to touch him. This would make a huge scandal! The maximum they can do is to retire quietly, with honor.

Of course, not everyone who has now received a great opportunity to take and steal will start doing this. The same military commissar, quite possibly a person of a crystal soul. And he is not included in the EKRP, so he does not need a financial parachute in case of a change of power. But there will be few such people. Most will not hesitate to take advantage of the situation and the boundless possibilities that have opened up, especially when the situation requires it.

Third, a stagnant economy will in any case lead to a decrease in real incomes, including those of those very special persons. This means that they will start looking for other opportunities to earn money. And the cards are now being laid down so that the choice becomes obvious by itself.

Fourth, the country where the law has actually ceased to exist is a kind of greenhouse for the flourishing of corruption. When "there is no time for the laws", that is, for their observance, it means that you don't have to care about them. Not about some specific ones but all en masse because no one drew up or approved a list of who doesn't need to follow which laws, and which laws are still needed. For example, the judge, who sentenced the Belsat journalists, can now easily make decisions on the basis of "who pays more." She doesn't even need to hide - no one will touch her anyway. Moreover, in a country where one is allowed to violate the laws, the others also receive a moral right to do so. All moral guidelines disappear.

Fifthly, law enforcement agencies focused on combating corruption are now engaged in completely different political work, which is more necessary for the authorities. They have almost no time left for corruption. And if the shepherd falls asleep or is distracted, not only the sheep wake up, but also the seasoned wolves.

Business is now really scared of what abyss the country might fall into. Or rather, what a gigantic wave is approaching it. If the government is not changed shortly or fundamental steps are not taken to return to the legal field, the catastrophe will not be avoided.

I don't know if Lukashenka himself understands which Pandora's box he opened. I hope he reads and understands. But what will he do? The options for possible countermeasures are very limited...

Siarhei Satsuk, Everyday Journal