Is Lukashenka Afraid of Palace Coup?

Cockroach’s actions only contribute to such a scenario.

Once again, Lukashenka has reshuffling. The appointment of the third Secretary of State of the Security Council within six months, who is now the Chief of the General Staff, First Deputy Minister of Defense Aliaksandr Volfovich, is noteworthy.

In general, staff tricks sometimes confuse the public: when one looks at a familiar face and can't remember what position the person holds.

Vadim Mozheiko, the analyst of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, told belprauda.com about the personnel policy in the country.

- Within six months, the Security Council has already had a third Secretary of State: Andrei Raukou, Valeyi Vakulchik, and finally Aliaksandr Volfovich. What does it mean?

- Lukashenka's personnel reshuffling has become common. Having no new people to appoint, he usually reshuffles his staff. It concerns the power block or control over strategically important enterprises (Grodno Azot). Lukashenka knows the danger of power clans. He tries to protect himself by staff reshuffle. As a result, it causes a low quality of work: constant staff reshuffle damages the service.

- When appointing Volfovich, Lukashenka stressed that Secretary of State of the Security Council was his top assistant in cooperation with the law enforcement agencies. Has the status of Secretary of State gained new shades?

- Lukashenka sees what he considers a key point in the situation. Belarus has developed a clumsy model with no clear division of functions and authorities between the Council of Ministers, the ruler's administration, and the Security Council. It has always been unclear what exactly the Council of Ministers does. I assume Lukashenka has outlined his priority in this case: control over security services fits into Lukashenka's intention to prevent either conspiracies or stable groups. One special service has to keep an eye on the others - a classic tactic of a dictator who himself is afraid of his entourage, so he seeks to keep it under constant stress.

- Former Interior Minister Karayeu is appointed his assistant in the Hrodna region. Former KGB Chairman Vakulchik serves in the Brest region. What does the appointment of former security officials, who zealously showed themselves during the suppression of protests, mean?

- I see two reasons for such decisions.

When Lukashenka removes law enforcers from Minsk, he does not let them feel irreplaceable. He shows that anyone can do the job. It makes sense, as he is afraid of law enforcers zealously following orders. On the other hand, it is an opportunity to strengthen control over the regions. He sends the official who is able to control the situation, or, at least, to make the vertical structure move, which means to create the appearance of control. It is a risky instrument. History proves that such steps cause retaliation measures. It is a risky measure. However, Lukashenka does not seem to see a better way to run the personnel policy.

- Isn't it an attempt to hand over control of the regions to law enforcers?

- In principle, since December 2019, the entire personnel system of Belarus has relied on law enforcers. Lukashenka seeks support in the law enforcers all the time. He does not see who else is trustworthy. When the new Civil Service Code was adopted, the authorities openly stated that it aimed at equating civil servants to the military as much as possible. On the other hand, replacing civil servants with military ones. It's a naïve attempt. After all, the military discipline Lukashenka is fond of can handle simple tasks (go and beat protesters with sticks). It makes no sense when it comes to more complicated tasks (develop small business, carry out reforms in a region). The use of the military to this extent in the public administration only harms it.

- Will it help to prevent the protests?

- So far, the system has managed to prevent mass marches. The system is unable to stop protests at the local, neighbourhood level. Whatever police chief you appoint, the situation will not change. Protest burns within people. The authorities can suppress its most vivid forms, but not the protest itself. The state has done nothing to regain the people's love. It failed to show its willingness to compromise; social guarantees are going down; taxes are rising.

- Can militarization of the government lead to a military coup d'etat?

- Lukashenka is scared to death of a military coup. It is why he is constantly shuffling his cadres and trying to control them. We will not see any stable clans or even stable groups of influence in the regions among the Belarusian power structures. We see that Lukashenka has managed to protect himself from it.

Meanwhile, we are observing the constant sell out of law enforcers. It makes us wonder how many people within the power structures have the same ideas. The name of the game of a palace coup is not to mention a palace coup in advance. Even if the law enforcers feel uncomfortable, they will hide it until the last moment.