Leanid Zaika: It’s Better for Lukashenka to Resign on His Own Volition

It's no accident that Kachanava used to work for Vodokanal (water supply service).

A water collapse hit Minsk. Starting from Thursday, June 24, "poisoned" water has been flowing from taps in Minsk. Initially, the emergency occurred in Frunzenski and Maskouski districts, while June 25, it expanded to some parts of Kastrychnitski and Tsentralny districts. Problems with water were on Friday, June 26, and the head of Minsk City Executive Committee said he did not know what the reason was.

The head of the Strategy analytical centre and a resident of Minsk, Leanid Zaika, commented on the situation.

- How is the water situation, Leanid Fedaravich? What do you think happened?

- I have no water at all. I sent messages to my friends that I drink whiskey and cognac. There's a lot of alcohol for disinfection, so we wash hands with whisky. Wet wipes are also useful.

I've always said that everyone in this country is doing the wrong things. There is an excellent engineer on water supply and sewerage in the country - Natallia Kachanava. Now she heads the "Council of the Republic". She studied to be an engineer of public utility systems. Then she was a duty engineer for water supply in Polatsk. As soon as she was taken out of this system, problems with water began... She went to serve Lukashenka. As a result, no professionals at places left.

- Is there a problem in only "Kachanavas"? Is there anything more significant than just a man-made accident?

- From the point of view of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, a large city may be left without water.

They teach specialists in subversive operations on how to disrupt the water supply system, paralyze certain infrastructure facilities in any country. These are special methods and tasks that can easily be performed by a well-trained person. It is enough to throw a small amount of, let's say, Chanel No. 5 into the Minsk water supply system and everyone will burst into a panic. This version is also valid.

- How do you assess the consequences of this emergency? In Minsk, thousands of people lined up for water on hot days. People say bad things about power...

- I can see the logic of events here.

There were huge lines in Minsk, people signed in support of alternative candidates...

That is, if you make up a logically literate construction, it turns out the authorities did not like people standing in lines. The authorities have made unwise attempts to prevent people from standing in lines on the avenue. Does it make sense?

They (no matter who, the logic of events matters) set another kind of lines, worse ones. They appeared as punishment for the authorities in the heat and with empty bottles.

- Why did such "black swans" as the water collapse in the capital start appearing more frequently?

- Back in 2004-2005, my acquaintances among Moscow scientists who had ties in the Kremlin told me that Putin had already been sick and tired of Lukashenka.

The Kremlin's personnel decisions should have happened sooner or later. The point of no return has been reached by Lukashenka. He has made too many mistakes.

Lukashenka, speaking Obama's language, crossed the red line. After that, several strong factors act against him. Please note, those who worked under Lukashenka went to Russia. They are almost all generals. This is Urals Latypov, people from security services he wanted to trust. I assume that was an information accumulation process. That is how Lukashenka can resist. I think the Kremlin has already filed him away in storage. He is not a lame duck yet, but he should realize he should resign right now and not run the elections at all.

Let us turn to Lukashenka's last visit to Moscow.

I thoroughly analyze it. Back in the Soviet Union, I used to study the work of experts in the Soviet and the Kremlin. Experts figured out those people standing near Khrushchev or Brezhnev.

I watched the video of the parade. It lasted for an hour and a half. I studied the gestures of Lukashenka. Based on traditional research, Lukashenka is filed away in storage. The leaders of other countries see this.

He is naive despite all his so-called "tricks". He believes a miracle can resсue him. As it happened when he arrested Irina Khakamada and Boris Nemtsov. Or something of this kind. Now I' m sure that nothing can rescue him anymore. I'm interested in a situational analysis when Lukashenka is not politically active.

One can send him to live in his beloved Arab Emirates. Everybody would chip in and buy him a ticket. The nomenclature feels it. After a careful study, I can say how the entourage, starting with the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister, reacts to his performances.

Everything is quite properly organized against him. One of the MSIMO graduates, Valery Tsepkalo, goes to the elections as an opponent. The second MSIMO graduate, Roman Golovchenko, is the Prime Minister. Tell me, who would miss these facts? Who is the current President of Kazakhstan now? He also graduated from MSIMO. MSIMO is a large educational institution, where intelligence and counterintelligence made a friendship.

- How do you think events will develop? Is it possible that anything unprecedented will happen this summer or this year?

- I am sure that Lukashenka should resign. There is no water in Minsk. However, this is not the most decisive factor against him. There are other ways. Given a more qualitative approach, he will resign "for health reasons".

He is about 66 years old. This is a rather complex age. Only 48% of men will live till the age of 65 in Belarus. That is, it is a starting point. It is quite difficult to overcome the age of 65-66 years in terms of health. When a person was parasitizing on his health, it can be dangerous. As soon as one starts to brave one's health, it bears severe consequences.

Judging by his appearance, he has problems. He will face increased psychological pressure.

He has recently made thoughtless statements when he told officers and generals that the army "should contribute to the establishment of order in the country". It was a gross violation of the principles of any military doctrine. The army, starting with the NATO Charter and its approaches, should never be involved in internal processes. He said that they would "help to establish order". Okay, guys. This mistake will cost him a lot. No officer will follow any orders that will be against the population of Belarus. They understand it.

Remember when the Alpha group was disbanded. When Boris Yeltsin gave the order to capture the opposition parliament. They refused to act without a written order. In retaliation, they were disbanded. Officers and generals keep this in mind.

The situation for Lukashenka is sailing close to the wind.

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