Tomas Janeliūnas: Belarus Unlikely To Stay Aside Russia’s Military Conflicts

The military integration between the regimes in the two countries has reached too high a level.

Commenting on the decision of the United States to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia, adviser to the President of the United States John Bolton said that Russian missiles are already in Europe and are threatening it.

Today it is known about the deployment of the Russian Iskander missile systems in the Kaliningrad region, where, according to the latest data, new nuclear bunkers are being built.

How much does the threat they pose increase due to the fact that the treaty on strategic nuclear deterrence with the United States is actually no longer in force? Professor of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science in Vilnius Tomas Janielūnas answers the questions of Charter97.org:

- I think that the Americans are coming out or are going to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty due to the fact that the United States does have evidence that Russia is violating it. As a result, the only superpower that can rerstrain it should unilaterally restrict these weapons. That, at least, is illogical.

Today, the United States is set to resume investment in nuclear technology. Withdrawal from the treaty will allow them to implement a larger-scale nuclear weapons modernization program to more effectively restrain Russia.

- How serious can the actions of the Russian Federation be in this regard? Will the Russian threat increase for the Baltic region?

- The Baltic countries are already the geographical area where the threat of the Russian Federation, even without leaving the INF Treaty, is quite serious. The Russian side can achieve the Baltic targets even with tactical missiles with a range of up to 500 kilometers.

The Russian threat can now increase in other directions. I mean Eastern Europe and potential conflicts that could draw Americans into a situation of increasing global instability.

Of course, the new situation may affect the overall level of security in the Baltic countries, but, strictly speaking, we do not fall into that strategic zone, due to which a new spiral of tension between Russia and the United States is emerging.

- Today, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in Minsk that due to the possible deployment of a US Army division in Poland, “response measures” will be taken. What can this mean in practice? Can Russia place a contingent of ground forces in Belarus on a permanent basis?

- Yes, I think this may be a pretext for the accumulation of land divisions or other military formations of the Russian Federation in Belarus.

A new stage of increasing the concentration of the Russian troops on the border with NATO may begin.

But I think that it is rather connected with Russia's own strategic goals. Much depends on how Russia will see Belarus as a potential springboard for a collision with NATO countries.

If such scenarios are part of Russia's long-term strategy, if the Russian Federation is set to raise the level of threat and is preparing its armed forces for the inevitable conflict with NATO, then the concentration of the Russian armed forces at the territory of Belarus will occur.

- How intensive, in your opinion, is Russia already using Belarus as a military springboard for a threat in the western direction?

- The degree of a threat is quite high. And the military integration between Russia and Belarus has already reached a level when the Russian Federation cannot hold large events in the western direction without the Belarusian assistance.

To date, a set of legal and technical tools has been activated for close cooperation between Russia and Belarus in the military sphere. And this means that the military integration of the two countries has reached such a level that Belarus is unlikely to be able to stay away from the armed conflicts of the Russian Federation.

I think that Belarus will inevitably be part of such a strategy of Russia, which provides for assistance to the Kremlin in military operations.