"The Response Of The Ukrainian Military Will Be Tougher Than Lukashenko Thinks"

The dictator hesitated.

Ukraine is closely monitoring the situation in the border areas of Belarus. Ukraine's President Vladimir Zelensky said that there is evidence of five scenarios of Russia's war expansion through the north of the country, including the use of Belarusian territory. In this regard, Ukraine will strengthen the Chernihiv-Kiev direction, writes Freedom.

Belarus has also begun joint nuclear exercises with Russia. Minsk claims that the drills are allegedly not directed against third countries. However, the Belarusian Defense Ministry stressed that the main focus of the maneuvers is aimed at working out the issues of stealth and movement of weapons over significant distances.

What's happening on the border with Belarus?

The Belarusian Defense Ministry said that the main purpose of the nuclear exercises is to improve readiness for the use of modern means of defeat. During the maneuvers, the Russian and Belarusian military are practicing the delivery of nuclear warheads and preparation for their possible use. One of the key features of the exercises will test the ability of units to operate in unprepared areas throughout the territory of Belarus. The main emphasis is placed on secrecy, long-distance movement and rapid calculations.

Analysts note that this scenario has been long in the making, as the ruler of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, is actually not independent and the existence of his regime is completely dependent on Putin.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Alexander Syrsky said that the information about an invasion from Belarus is quite real and in this case the front will become even wider.

"The front line will expand. The Commander-in-Chief noted the threat from Belarus. An operation in the north is possible, we know these data, the Russian General Staff is now actively planning offensive operations from the north," Syrsky said in an interview with the Militarny channel.

On May 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned: The Kremlin does not stop trying to drag Belarus into the war. According to him, the matter concerns both possible actions against Ukraine and scenarios directed against one of the NATO member states.

"We clearly understand what is being discussed between Russia and the leadership of Belarus. Now there is increased activity on the part of Russia, I mean negotiations with Alexander Lukashenko. They want to draw Belarus into war much more strongly and it is from the territory of Belarus to launch additional aggressive operations - either against our Chernihiv-Kiev direction or against one of the NATO countries bordering Belarus," the Ukrainian head of state said.

It is noteworthy that the side that brushed aside Ukraine's warning is precisely Russia. Putin's spokesman Dmitri Peskov called it alleged incitement. In turn, Minsk did not refute Kiev's data in any way. Moreover, Alexander Lukashenko said: the state is really preparing for war. According to him, it's in vain to hope for a peaceful time now. Recall that Belarus has now announced a point mobilization, 5,000 reserve officers were drafted in April, while the regions are gathering territorial defense troops.

"Further, as I promised, we will mobilize units to prepare them for war. God willing, it will be avoided. We are preparing for war, we are not hiding anything," said Lukashenko.

In April, the Ukrainian president said that according to intelligence reports, roads were being actively laid in the border zone of Belarus, artillery positions were being set up and new border posts were being built.

One more complex is being built in Brest voblast, and another one - in Narovlya district of Homel voblast, directly near the Ukrainian border, and in winter the construction of a training ground in Rechitsa district began.

The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (SBGSU) also sees signs of danger. However, they note that it is impossible to say with certainty that an attack is imminent. This is evidenced by the fact that Russia does not have a large amount of military equipment and manpower on the territory of Belarus.

"The threat from Belarus is not going anywhere. Fortunately, at the moment Russia does not keep any of its units with a large amount of equipment or personnel on the territory of Belarus. But again, at any moment Russia may transfer its additional forces to the territory of Belarus," says the speaker of the State Security Service of Ukraine Andrei Demchenko.

At the same time, Demchenko suggests that the Kremlin continues to pressure Lukashenko's regime to join the war.

"At the same time, we see that Russia is probably putting pressure on Belarus to join the war on a larger scale. Earlier, Belarus announced the creation of the Southern Operational Command exactly in the direction of the border with Ukraine. Therefore, logistics routes and other facilities, in particular, firing ranges, are being arranged there," says the speaker of the State Border Guard Service.

If Lukashenko still risks directly joining Russia's war against Ukraine, the response of the Ukrainian military will be tougher than he thinks, assured the State Border Guard Service. Such a scenario is not ruled out in the Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD) at the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine, but is considered unlikely in the near future.

"As for Belarus, all their actions in the border zone are recorded. At the moment, only minor provocations are possible from that side, which will cost more for the Belarusian side. No more than that. That's why it's better for the Belarusians not to commit them," said the head of the Central Committee of the National Security and Defense Council Andrei Kovalenko.

At the same time, Lukashenko can help Russia with mobilization resources. Belarus has already stopped letting Russian conscripts out of the country. The Belarusian State Border Committee said Russian citizens, for whom there is a travel ban after receiving a summons, will not be able to leave the country. According to human rights activists, Moscow and Minsk now exchange data from the electronic register of military registration and the register of summonses.

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