Invasion Of Venezuela: Probability Of Overthrowing "Lukashenko's Friend" Revealed
1- 8.11.2025, 21:40
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There have been similar precedents in U.S. history.
Leading expert on Latin American issues of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism" Ivan Fechko commented on the likelihood of a large-scale US operation against the regime of Venezuelan dictator, "Lukashenko's friend" Nicolas Maduro.
As he emphasized in his commentary to "Glavred", such a scenario is still unlikely.
"First, we do not see a sufficient number of American forces concentrated in the region. The military units that are now deployed around Venezuela, in the Caribbean, are insufficient for a large-scale operation. They are rather designed to exert psychological and political pressure on Maduro, as well as to carry out point actions," the expert said.
In his opinion, the second factor that makes a large-scale operation unlikely is the sentiments of the American society, with which, one way or another, the administration of Donald Trump has to reckon.
"Historically, the United States has had precedents for military interventions on the territory of other countries - in Iraq, in Afghanistan - but these operations dragged on, failed to produce the expected results, and resulted in significant human and financial losses. The assessment of these operations in society was predominantly negative," he pointed out.
The interlocutor also recalled that Donald Trump positions himself as a "peace president" who has ended a number of international conflicts.
"His ambitions to receive the Nobel Peace Prize next year remain relevant, so getting involved in a new military campaign now would be reputationally disadvantageous for him. Maduro is well aware of this and is trying to play on these fears by creating an image of Venezuelan unity around him. He demonstrates the alleged mobilization of reservists and readiness for guerrilla warfare in the event of an invasion," Fechko added.
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