Ukrainian Intelligence Reveals Lukashenko's Biggest Fear

Belarusian special services are involved in special operations against Ukraine.

Lukashenko is most afraid of being dragged into the Russian-Ukrainian war. His assistance to Putin is primarily evidence of his own benefit.

This statement was made by ex-deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Defense Ministry of Ukraine, Major General Ilya Pavlenko at the IV Ostrozhskie Forum 2025.

The former deputy head of the Defense Ministry's GUR explained that the special services of Belarus, which are involved in special operations against Ukraine, in particular cyber operations and IPSO, are fully controlled by the Russians, but are much weaker.

According to him, they mainly specialize in intelligence in cyberspace, including across Europe and in Ukraine's border region, rather than in attacks. And although there is a threat, it comes not from the regime in Belarus, but from Russia.

But as the major general noted, the Belarusian dictator has his weaknesses. He believes that the biggest fear for Lukashenko remains the possible compulsion to involve him in the war in Ukraine.

To avoid direct involvement in hostilities or provocations, Lukashenko is said to be trying to create conditions that would constantly prove to Putin that he is useful to him.

For example, in the manufacture of missiles, radio electronics, chassis for strategic forces or fuel. Especially in the conditions of Ukrainian diplomatic strikes on enemy facilities.

- Therefore, he sees in a terrible dream that he will receive some tasks to start escalation. And for the sake of this, he favors the development of the economy, which, according to experts, has lost half of the planned growth for 2026, and this is just the beginning," explained Ilya Pavlenko.

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