Trade Falls, Dependence Grows: Russia Can No Longer Survive Without China

Moscow's dependence on Beijing is growing rapidly amid the crisis.

Russia is rapidly increasing its economic dependence on China, and this trend is becoming more and more dangerous for the Kremlin.

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reported this as reported by analyzing trade data for the first nine months of 2025.

According to the SVR, trade between Russia and China during this period fell to $163.6 billion - almost 10% less than a year earlier. At the same time, both Chinese supplies to Russia (minus 11.3%, to 73.6 billion) and Russian exports to China (minus 7.7%, to 90 billion) fell. In fact, Moscow is losing even the limited economic resource it still had.

The main reason for the fall is the decline in the cost of energy carriers. Russian energy exports to China collapsed by almost 19%, which means minus 14 billion dollars. Oil supplies fell by 8.1% in physical volumes and 21% in money due to cheaper Brent. This is a painful blow to the Russian budget, which already relies on commodity revenues.

The oversaturation of the Russian market with Chinese cars is noted separately. After record deliveries in 2024, demand in 2025 fell by more than half - minus 56%. Moscow, which had hoped to replace Western brands with Chinese brands, is now facing the opposite problem: stock balances are growing, sales are falling, and dependence on Chinese manufacturers is becoming critical.

The situation has been aggravated by logistical crises. In the fall, huge queues of trucks formed at the border between China and Kazakhstan, and the cost of delivery from China to Russia rose sharply: by rail - by 25%, by road - by 35%. On sea routes, some operators, including CStar Line and STF Shipping, reduced calls to Russian ports due to financial restrictions and sanctions risks.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]