"Putin Will Put The Question To Lukashenko As A Matter Of Urgency"

The Kremlin can force a dictator to go to war.

The crisis on the border between Belarus and Lithuania continues. Every day, weather probes fly into the Lithuanian territory the border is closed, and Lukashenko has taken hostage hundreds of trucks that have not had time to leave the country. Lithuania is trying to put pressure on Lukashenko through the US.

What is behind this situation: a hybrid war between Putin and Lukashenko against Lithuania? Or perhaps Minsk is trying to raise the stakes in negotiations with the U.S.?

About this, Charter97.org talked with Ukrainian political scientist, professor of Kyiv Taras Shevchenko National University Peter Oleshchuk:

- I have such suspicions that Lukashenko is playing a complicated game. He is trying to sit on several chairs at the same time. On the one hand, he is very much interested in resetting relations with the United States, the prospect that it will somehow improve relations with Europe. It is favorable for him to have the sanctions at least partially lifted.

Because Belarus is not Russia, there is no such power reserve in the form of an oil cushion. Therefore, Lukashenko is very much interested. But at the same time he is afraid of Putin. He is afraid that the Kremlin boss will consider him disloyal, a conspirator. And in general, given the level of Putin's paranoia, it is not so difficult to awaken it.

I think that Lukashenko is simultaneously trying to flirt with the United States, and at the same time to show Putin that he is loyal, that everything is stable, that he is with Russia to the end. He will not conduct any separate negotiations. And if he does, it is only on some local issues that do not solve anything globally. That is why the terror against Lithuania is a demonstration of loyalty on Lukashenko's part.

Possibly, this is some kind of coordinated plan with Russia. It has recently moved intensively to various provocations against the countries of the European Union and NATO. I think it also fits into the general escalation strategy that Putin has started.

This includes statements about nuclear weapons tests that they are allegedly planning to conduct, numerous provocations against European countries, and the same "shaheds" that are flying into Poland. That is, this is a common part of Russia's strategy of terrorizing the EU and NATO countries in order to intimidate them into giving up their support for Ukraine.

Obviously, Lukashenko has an important role in this scheme, because Belarus borders a number of European countries. Belarus is quite convenient for taking provocative actions against these countries. Lukashenko, apparently, realizes that he is being used to cover himself in case of any risk.

The scheme is quite simple: Russia takes some actions against the European Union and NATO, but they are carried out from the territory of Belarus and on its behalf. Obviously, the extremely cowardly Putin is still afraid that there will be a real response.

And if there is a response, let it be to Lukashenko. And Lukashenko probably realizes this too, so he is intensifying relations with the United States to convince them that he is not plotting anything.

Lukashenko is trying to somehow stay in this situation, afraid of both Putin and the West, trying to somehow reset relations, to lift sanctions, but at the same time to preserve relations with Russia. I don't know how long he will be able to hold out in this situation, because Putin will still put the question to him: are you with me or not? If you are with me, then let's start a war, for example, against Lithuania and so on.

This option is absolutely not excluded. Putin may demand, if not to start a war directly, then to start a series of large-scale provocations against Lithuania. Probably, Lukashenko is thus postponing the moment when it will be necessary to start something more large-scale.

In any case, I have no doubt that Putin has very serious plans for Lukashenko, and he will have to undertake some large-scale provocations against Europe, because Putin, as it seems to me, has chosen the scenario of the so-called Caribbean crisis as a basic one.

That is, raising the stakes to the maximum in order to propose a settlement, but through some mutual concessions. Naturally, these concessions will imply, from Putin's point of view, that Ukraine must concede to him.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]