Political Analyst: Tokayev Made This Decision For A Reason

Post-Soviet countries are fleeing Russia.

The Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan for six months imposed a ban on the export of major oil products from the territory of the country. Including to Russia. Why post-Soviet countries are in no hurry to help Russia with oil products? Lukashenko alone is doing it.

About this Charter97.org talked to Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute of Social Problems (IVO) (Bratislava) Grigory Mesejnikov:

- It is interesting that Kazakhstan has made such a decision just now. I think it has to do with the results or maybe with the very discussion at the meeting between Donald Trump and the heads of the five Central Asian states, where special attention was drawn to the fact that Kazakhstan became part of the so-called Abrahamic Accords.

The agreement in question is the one between Arab countries and Israel. This, on the one hand, caused surprise, because Kazakhstan has perfectly normal diplomatic relations with Israel. As far as I know, the relations are developing quite vividly, there are concrete projects. But the thing is that it is not just an agreement between two partners on one side and the other, it is an agreement, in fact, and with the United States.

Kazakhstan entered into relations with Israel already at a somewhat higher level. I should note that these agreements were prepared by the American administration. By the way, I would say that this is an invention of Donald Trump and the people who surround him. He is trying to get Israel to cooperate with other states by playing an enhanced role in this.

Kazakhstan has now become part of the relationship between Israel and America. I think there seem to be some less obvious aspects there that Kazakhstan has now had to take into account in its policy towards Russia, especially since the American administration has imposed sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft.

As for Belarus, the situation is clear. Although the current American administration is sending signals to Lukashenko that it would be good if he distances himself from Russia. But I think it is hardly possible at all. Russia absolutely dominates everything there.

Belarus is occupied by the current Russian regime. This is a special issue, but in any case, the Americans want Lukashenko to somehow detach from Russia, if not completely, at least to distance him.

Now it is extremely important to follow Russia's reaction to the situation with Kazakhstan. How the Z-community of propagandists will talk about this country. This could be the first, preliminary signal of what Russia might be up to regarding Kazakhstan. It does have possibilities, for example, of revitalizing pro-Russian separatism in northeastern Kazakhstan.

The reality is that it appears that for Kazakhstan, the factor of the American presence is now important. And Donald Trump has demonstrated that he is capable of pushing through his decisions almost by force, imposing sanctions on regimes with which he has complicated relations. He is in general, of course, hard to predict, but nevertheless, he has a mindset to solve the problem by force. Look what is happening around Venezuela.

Tokayev is of course a pragmatic opportunist, and he takes all factors into account. It is clear that he will take into account the geographical proximity of Russia and the opportunity to influence the situation in Kazakhstan, but he should not completely discount the fact that he is now part of a very unusual partnership with Israel and America, in which the U.S. has a special say. It's not just a bilateral relationship, I emphasize, it's a special format. And this partnership will bring some benefits to each of its participants

- Russia is losing the South Caucasus. Armenia, disillusioned with Moscow's allied support, has embarked on a course to reduce its dependence on Russia. Yerevan seeks to normalize relations with Turkey. Where is this going?

- I think it is due to the fact that Russia's current policy has become very aggressive, tough. Because of what is happening in Ukraine, being close to Russia, you cannot be completely sure that one day something like this will not happen to your own country. Any manifestation of disagreement, any other idea about the development of your own country, which Russia does not like, can cause economic pressure, blackmail, other forms of external pressure, and even military provocations, or even an open military invasion.

In such a situation, one cannot hope for a favorable attitude on the part of such a regime, which, in fact, has become almost a pariah itself. Russia, in fact, is a pariah country, and it has become part of the global coalition of pariahs, along with North Korea, Iran, and China is also looming on the horizon, which supports these countries.

Armenia is now showing itself quite autonomously, independently. Pashinyan has already spoken several times about the need to strengthen cooperation with European countries. This European direction is more clearly manifested after Russia, in fact, surrendered Armenia.

As for Azerbaijan, it also has its own regional interests. Azerbaijan is oriented towards Turkey. Remember what happened in relations between Russia and Azerbaijan after Russia shot down an Azerbaijani airplane. And then what were the retaliatory measures against Russian Azerbaijanis, ordinary citizens. Russia plays by different rules. I should note here that Azerbaijan's image in the West is not particularly favorable. This is also due to internal political problems. And here we have to answer for our close ally - Russia, and there is Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and so on and so forth behind Russia. Why, as they say, complicate your life?

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]