Will Officials Want To Take Revenge On Lukashenko?
10- 12.11.2025, 16:44
- 20,312
Why a "successor" operation is impossible.
Lukashenko cannot hand over power to a successor who would guarantee his further safe existence, Belarusian political scientist Valery Karbalevich writes for "Pozirka":
- First of all, he does not trust anyone, because he judges others by himself. The Belarusian ruler has broken his promises many times, when it was profitable for him.
For many years of Lukashenko's rule he has done so much wrong that there are many offended people who want to bring him to criminal responsibility. And not only in the opposition.
A lot of high officials, representatives of the directorate, businessmen have suffered. There, too, in the elite environment, many seeds of hatred have been accumulated. People do not take revenge for anything so much as for their own humiliation.
Long being in power led Lukashenko to realize that in politics any guarantees and agreements are relative and conditional, Karbalevich writes:
- Their observance depends not so much on the accuracy and degree of legal enshrinement as on the balance of political forces.
The dictator Augusto Pinochet in Chile on the eve of his resignation created a seemingly multi-story, multi-tiered system of guarantees of his own inviolability. Nevertheless, this did not save him from prosecution.
The history of recent decades provides many examples of former dictators being put on trial.
In addition, the officially announced successor is a threat to the incumbent ruler, the center of consolidation of all the discontented in the elite.
When he appears, the ruling nomenklatura will begin to gradually orient itself towards the future ruler. And the former one will turn into a "lame duck".
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