Vitaly Portnikov: This Is A Serious Lever Of Pressure

How do we stop Putin?

Russia has intensified hybrid attacks on Europe - Russian drones and airplanes are flying over EU countries. What is Putin's goal? Combat reconnaissance? Probing NATO's borders? This is the question Charter97.org asked to the well-known Ukrainian political scientist and publicist Vitaliy Portnikov:

- I think it's both. But, of course, the main thing is to try to understand where those red lines are, after which the West is ready for some decisive response.

Any major war requires escalation if the aggressor fails to achieve its own goals. This is a perfectly logical approach for any aggressor to take to the situation. The Russian army cannot occupy the territory that Putin would already like to see under his control. Ukraine does not agree to surrender. In that sense, no reason is seen that could help break the stalemate in the war. And Putin sees as one of those reasons, one of the possibilities, is further escalation and scaling up of the war.

- How should Europe respond to these provocations? How can we put an end to them, knowing Putin's psychology?"

- I think Europe needs to get rid of fear. There are concrete actions that can be taken: a common no-fly zone between NATO countries and Ukraine to shoot down Russian missiles and drones in Ukrainian airspace in a joint effort; more military aid to Ukraine; more sanctions. Of course, it is necessary to shoot down Russian drones in NATO countries' airspace.

- Ukraine continues to strike Russian refineries and terminals, which is already causing fuel problems in Russia. Is this an effective tool of pressure? We do realize that for Putin, this war is existential. He doesn't care whether Russians have gasoline at their gas stations. Is there a line where such attacks by the AFU can make Putin stop?

- It depends on what the actual damage is and how quickly refineries can be restored after the strikes. It's not easy to assess this, of course, we can't do it ourselves. We are not energy specialists, we are not economists. We see that there are strikes, that there are losses. How all this is being restored is the next question.

Definitely, this is a serious leverage. Certainly in the situation we are seeing, a certain level of economic damage can lead to a cessation of hostilities. But that level of economic damage is not easy to establish.Not to mention that I don't think that ending the war is any serious threat to the Putin regime at all, because that would depend on the effectiveness of the security apparatus in Russia itself.

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