FT: Can Trump Stop India From Buying Russian Oil?

After the outbreak of war, Delhi became one of the largest buyers of Russian oil.

The US has imposed the toughest sanctions against Russia since the start of the war, with restrictions on major oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. US President Donald Trump said that "harsh sanctions" will help "put Putin at the negotiating table," but admitted that they could cause a rise in global oil prices, writes Financial Times (translated by Charter97.org).

Russia exports about 5 million barrels of oil a day, of which 1.5 million are received by India and 2.2 million by China. Since the war began, New Delhi has been one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil, taking advantage of discounts. But new US sanctions could change that pattern.

Washington has imposed so-called secondary sanctions, threatening to restrict access to dollar settlements and US markets for companies cooperating with Russian producers. This presents India and China with a choice: work with Russia or retain access to Western finance.

Reliance Industries, which owns the world's largest oil refinery, has already said it intends to "reconsider its approach" to buying Russian oil. Analysts note that India is traditionally more cautious than China in violating U.S. sanctions.

According to experts, China is likely to continue purchases, but is unlikely to be able to fully compensate for a possible reduction in Indian supplies. This could lead to lower production in Russia and an additional blow to its budget - oil and gas revenues have already fallen by 20% in the first nine months of 2025.

On the global market, Brent has already risen by 9%, exceeding $70 per barrel. Experts warn: if supplies are cut by more than 2 million barrels a day, prices will continue to rise - contrary to Trump's promises of "cheaper energy."

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