Political Scientist: Serious Threat Looms Over Lukashenka

Why is the regime afraid to call the drones over Belarus "Russian"?

Russian drones regularly penetrate Belarus. Recently, two of them were shot down over Homel, they fell directly on residential quarters. Lukashenka is trying to present himself as a "guarantor of peace" for Belarusians. Can such incidents destroy this propaganda ideas?

Charter97.org spoke about this with the famous Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Penta Center of Applied Political Studies:

— I do not think that Belarusians believe that Lukashenka is the guarantor of peace for them. On the contrary, the main risk for Belarus is precisely related to his policy. Lukashenka acts as an ally of Russia, which is waging a dirty and bloody war against Ukraine.

The fact that Russian drones fly into Belarus is a consequence of the policy pursued by Lukashenka. This is a significant threat that can shake his image of a "peacemaker".

However, the main risk is associated with drawing Belarus into the war against Ukraine, which Lukashenka wants to avoid.

If Belarus is increasingly drawn into the war in various forms, this image will be covered with cracks. The only question is when it will finally collapse.

— It is noteworthy that the Belarusian military has never said that these drones are Russian. Such newspeak is used: "incidents", "drones that flew from Ukraine". Why can't they say that these drones are Russian?

— They used to accuse Ukraine, they say, our drones fly in. The fact is that now it is easy to refute and prove that it is Russian drones that fly in.

This is Lukashenka's official propaganda policy in order to avoid direct accusations against Russia. Firstly, in this way, at least formal loyalty on the part of the Russian Federation is preserved.

Secondly, there will be no contradictions in the propaganda attitude. All the same, accusations are raining against Ukraine. If we admit that the threat comes from Russian drones, they have to be shot down, then there are questions to Lukashenka. So newspeak is a forced measure, an attempt to hide what one manages to hide worse and worse.

After all, it is Russian drones that are shot down, and not some alien unidentified flying objects.

— On the weekend, one of the Russian drones flew into the territory of Latvia through Belarus. Can Lukashenka run into the reaction of the West for not controlling his territory?

— This has already caused a hot discussion. First of all, there are already accusations in the Baltic countries that such incidents pose a threat to the residents of these countries.

And that the lack of reaction (at least in the form of shooting down these drones) ultimately creates such risks. Therefore, I think that these incidents themselves are already a good informational and political reason not only for discussion, but also for deciding that these drones should be shot down.

Now the main accusations are against Russia and, let's say, the main purpose of this discussion is not Lukashenka, but the fact that these drones should be shot down.

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