My Downed Drone

Drones reminded Belarusians of the war.

Reports about attack UAVs, which come to Belarus from the south, have been circulating since July. Such information is spread either by the Armed Forces of Ukraine or by independent Belarusian media and initiatives. On August 8, nine Russian ‘Shahed’ drones were reported on the territory of Belarus.

Until recently, the Belarusian side reacted to such publications approximately like to the coronavirus at the initial stage of the pandemic. ‘Do you see the virus? And I don't see it.’ This is a trademark style of the authorities and the propaganda serving them - to ‘ignore’ troubles for as long as it is possible. Lukashenka did recognise COVID-19, but the time was lost. So many people died that the statistics had to be concealed. The survivors kept their discontent until August 2020 and after the election fraud hundreds of thousands took to the streets to protest.

In the case of drones, the authorities' eyes opened faster, but in a rather peculiar way. On August 10, Lukashenka harnessed the topic in order to blame Kyiv for everything. He traditionally threatened with consequences for that the AFU had allegedly launched ‘about a dozen’ UAVs through Belarus towards Russia and ordered the troops to return to the southern border. It is curious that during those days there were no drone flights into the country, and many people took those bellicose statements of the Minsk autocrat as an excuse to please Moscow. At that time, the Ukrainian military were making their victorious march in Kursk region, and some loud voices in Russia were accusing the ‘little brother’ of evading the fulfilment of allied duties.

On September 5, the Ministry of Defence could not remain silent. No wonder: another group of drones not only flew into Belarus as a nightmare, but also made the air defence forces work hard. The Ministry barely reported on the downed drones, without specifying their ‘origin’ or the route of their arrival in our blessed land. At the same time, the media reported about the number of ‘targets’, their Russian affiliation, the falling of debris in the neighbourhoods of Homel, and the fires that broke out. The Ministry of Emergency Situations later admitted to extinguishing the fires, publishing pictures of burnt buildings.

Fortunately, there were no casualties, but something important happened. The concept of a ‘peaceful republic’ in the ‘mad world’, intensively promoted by the authorities, propagandists and Lukashenka personally, was shaken. Strike drones falling on sleeping Belarusian cities is, to put it bluntly, not a peaceful picture.

UAVs Falling On Country's Second City Do Not Fit Into Guarantees Of Stability

There are two versions of the Russian drones' appearance in the Belarusian airspace. The first one is the most obvious - UAVs ‘lost’ in the fog of war come to us. The second is the conspiracy one - Russia deliberately sends them to the territory of its ally to encourage it to take more active actions against Kyiv.

Some speakers raised their voices saying that Ukrainian drones came to Belarus on the night of September 5, but this assumption is not popular even in the pro-government camp. Simply because Kyiv does not need a hot conflict with Minsk. And if it did, the Belarusians would regret the days they were born. Ukraine is practically not inferior to Russia in the sphere of unmanned aviation, and if the AFU can set the Moscow oil refinery on fire, one can imagine what it would be like with the Mazyr or the Navapolatsk ones.

In general, whichever version you take, it doesn't get any easier: this is how the proximity of war makes itself felt. In the past few days, this was experienced by the residents of Homel, the second most populous city in the country.

The war has become geographically closer to the Belarusian borders in recent months. Russia has been regularly attacking northern Ukrainian cities with missiles. The AFU continues to hold the bridgehead in Kursk region, and from time to time, according to media reports, attempts are made to enter Bryansk region - the one adjacent to Belarus.

Only yesterday it was quiet here, while it was raging mostly near Kharkiv and in Donbass. It was far away - the guarantor of Belarusian stability could be peacefully engaged in harvesting. Now the situation has changed, and the main thing is that it is absolutely not clear what the war will be tomorrow.

Lukashenka cannot help being worried about such dangerous echoes of hostilities. It is not without reason that for two days he has not said anything about the burning ‘shaheds’ that fell on Homel. Probably, there is a behind-the-scenes dialogue with the Kremlin on this issue - Minsk is asking to hit Ukraine more accurately, so that no ricochets hit its comrade-in-arms. It is easy to imagine the posture of the one asking. It is to Western countries that the easily disturbed Belarusian Foreign Ministry can hand out protest notes any day. Such diplomacy is not applicable to Russia, the dependence on which has long become essential.

Meanwhile, Russian drones are destroying the main ideological concept with which the authorities are going to the presidential elections - the concept of ‘peaceful sky above our heads’. The image of a quiet country whose citizens are engaged in creative labour, protected from geopolitical draughts by the broad back of their wise leader.

If combat drones continue to fly in the Belarusian sky, Lukashenka will find it difficult to ‘sell’ to the population the idea of the promised ‘piece of land’ where nothing shoots or explodes. If air defence systems continue to attack someone else's flying objects, the echo of the war in Ukraine may become an additional, and an extremely unpleasant for Minsk, domestic political circumstance in the pre-election period.

Viachaslau Karastsen', ‘Pozirk’

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