Ukrainian Navy Captain: Russian Hocus Pocus Failed

The Russian fleet has transformed from an ocean-going to a coastal fleet.

In early August, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the defeat of the Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don in the temporarily occupied Crimea.

Pavlo Lakiychuk, Captain of the Ukrainian Navy, Head of Military Programs at the Center for Globalistics “Strategy XXI”, told Charter97.org how serious a loss this is for the Russian fleet, and why Russian ships were trapped in the Black Sea.

— The story began last year, when Storm Shadow missiles attacked the Sevastopol Marine Plant, in particular the northern dock of the Sevastopol Marine Plant, located on the northern side of Sevastopol. The large landing ship Minsk and the submarine Rostov-on-Don were located there.

As a result of this strike, both ships received serious damage, incompatible with life, I would say. The dry dock doors, these are the gates that connect the plant with the water, directly with the bay, stood firm. This allowed the Russians to patch up these ships, to claim that they would restore them. Then the ships were dragged from the Sevastopol Marine Plant dock to the 13th ship repair yard of the Black Sea Fleet, this is the main specialized enterprise for the repair of Black Sea Fleet warships in Kilen Bay in Sevastopol.

So they stood there, and after some time, Ukrainian intelligence received information that the Russians wanted to restore the Minsk in a very interesting way. In 2014, among the ships of the Ukrainian Navy that they captured in Sevastopol was the large landing ship Konstantin Olshansky. This is a pretty cool ship, the Russians have been eyeing it for a long time, but it cannot be used as a trophy vessel in their fleet. It will not go to any sea, it will be arrested in any port.

And then they had this idea that they could restore the Olshansky, write “Minsk” on its side, and here you have a hocus-pocus. The idea failed. With a heavy heart, our missilemen hit our own ship, and the Konstantin Olshansky was finally put out of action. I think this is where the story of the restoration of the Minsk ends, although it continues to stand at the 13th plant.

The same applies to the Rostov-on-Don. Judging by the damage that was inflicted during the strike on the Sevmorzavod, its rigid hull was seriously damaged in at least two places. A submarine differs from a surface ship in that the shape that we see from above is a light hull for the hydrodynamic properties of the ship. Inside there is a capsule made of very strong metal, which must withstand the pressure of many tons of water when the ship is submerged.

According to the tactical and technical characteristics, the 636th project “Varshavyanka” can dive to a depth of 300 meters, and the operating depth is 60-100 meters. In fact, if there is serious damage to the rigid hull, it is already irreparable. Nevertheless, the Russians have announced plans to restore the Rostov-on-Don. From my personal point of view, even if they restore it, the best fate for it is a floating charging station.

Our command believes that even if this submarine dives to 8-10 meters and launches “Kalibr” from this depth, it still poses a danger. Therefore, they decided to play it safe, a second strike was carried out on the Rostov-on-Don, as a result of which it received even more significant damage. It is difficult to assess yet, there is no objective data on the physical damage that the submarine received as a result of the second strike. But most likely, its road now leads to Inkerman now, “for needles” (for scrap — edit.).

That is, minus one, but there are still three submarines carrying “Kalibr” in the Black Sea. Well, one boat left the Black Sea for combat service in 2021, it is in the Mediterranean Sea and cannot return. That is, until the end of hostilities in the Black Sea, this trio remains the main threat.

— However, the ship repair yard in Sevastopol is now under fire from Ukraine. Is this trio trapped now?

— Not only this trio, it turns out that the Russian Black Sea Fleet is deprived of reliable ship repair facilities. Now, if you look at the map, two unfinished large landing ships, the Minsk and Olshansky, are hiding at the 13th plant in Sevastopol, and one large landing ship is in the oil harbor. Ships are usually parked there under nets when they arrive in Sevastopol, waiting for something to hit them.

The Russians made many mistakes in 2014, but one of the biggest was that they counted on Sevastopol as the main base of the Black Sea Fleet in the conditions of the war with Ukraine, including expanding the repair base. Instead of diversifying ship repair to Novorossiysk at least, the Sevastopol Marine Plant was designated as the main ship repair enterprise of the Black Sea Fleet. This is a Ukrainian state enterprise that was seized and nationalized by the Russian Federation.

They concentrated all ship repairs in Sevastopol. Now let them solve this if they can, I don’t know if they’ll succeed. In fact, there are capacities in other occupied territories: the More plant in Feodosia, and the Zaliv plant in Kerch. In the old days, they were large shipbuilding and ship repair enterprises.

But it also hits Feodosia, and it hits Kerch. As a result of a missile strike, the Askold missile ship was destroyed during completion. This happened in the Kerch Gulf right at the pier. The Russians are afraid to repair ships there. Where to carry out ship repairs now — let them figure it out themselves.

— There is a famous expression attributed to the Russian Tsar Alexander III. “Russia has only two allies — its army and navy.” Can the Russian Federation count on the navy as an ally today?

— The Russian Navy is not only the Black Sea Fleet, it is also the Northern Fleet, the Pacific Fleet, similar formations in the Baltic, shell-shocked, like the Black Sea Fleet, there is also a group of ships, the so-called Caspian Flotilla. The Caspian Flotilla is weak, but they can send their ships along internal sea routes to the Black Sea and Azov, thus strengthening the Black Sea Fleet.

By and large, the Black Sea Fleet can no longer fulfill the tasks assigned to it for this war, including as a result of the defeat of key warships. The second factor is the very threat of using sea drones (and not only) puts the effectiveness of this fleet in great question.

As for the Russian Navy as a whole, it has long been in crisis. The transition from an ocean fleet to such a very coastal one is a rather painful blow to Russian ambitions. Let me remind you that the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, has been in, so to speak, permanent and not very promising repairs for several years now. It has already burned, cranes have fallen on it, floating docks have sunk. Whether its repairs will end with its restoration and introduction into the fleet's combat composition is a very debatable question.

The nuclear missile cruiser Pyotr Velikiy, such a calling card of the Russian fleet, has also been undergoing repairs for many years. Most likely, it will not come out of this repair, its further fate is tragic — “for pins and needles”. Instead, the Russians decided to put into service its sister ship (a ship of the same type, a ship of the same series — edit.) — Admiral Nakhimov, which has been mothballed, if I am not mistaken, since 1988. Just imagine, 30 years of conservation and now repairs. It is also a rhetorical question, will it be included in the fleet or not.

In terms of ocean-going surface ships, the Russian fleet is no longer a competitor in the world's oceans, only submarines with ballistic missiles remain. Yes, they pose a threat, but they are closely monitored. I do not think that this component of the nuclear triad of the Russian Federation is decisive in its combat potential. That is what nuclear deterrence is for, no one wants to check it, and there is no need in doing so.

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