Oleksiy Melnyk On Intercepted ‘Kinzhals’ And ‘Kalibrs’: Ukraine’s Message For Russia

A military expert spoke about the triumph of Ukrainian air defenses.

The forces and means of air defense of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down all 18 missiles fired by the Russian Federation against Ukraine last night. Including six Kinzhals and nine Kalibrs.

Charter97.org asked military expert Oleksiy Melnyk, Co-Director for Foreign Relations and International Security Programmes, Coordinator of International Projects at the Razumkov Center, First Assistant to the Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2005-2008), to comment on the triumph of Ukraine's air defenses:

– When the first information appeared in early May that the Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down the Kinzhal missile and fragments were found, the Ukrainian Air Force first took a short pause in order, firstly, to make sure that this was really the case, and, secondly, out of secrecy considerations. It was important to hide this information from the Russians. There is such an element of carrying out any operation as an assessment of the damage caused. If the information about the downed missile had appeared immediately, it could have damaged the Ukrainian defense.

At the same time just a few hours after the attack, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said that all the missiles were shot down, and in addition to the Kinzhals, we are also talking about the Iskander-M falling into the category of weapons Ukraine could not fight with until recently. There were almost no Iskander-M launches intercepted.

Today, this is just a signal to the Russian side that with their former effectiveness, in practical terms, they will not be able to hit targets, at least in those areas where, presumably, Ukraine has deployed the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system. I'd like to stress that so far there has been no information so far on what systems were used to shoot the missiles down.

I will add that I cannot confirm, but there are rumours that the targets of these missiles were the Patriot air defense systems. The effectiveness that they could demonstrate tonight is clearly not in favour of the Russian Federation.

– Do you think that attacks on Kyiv will stop, given that now even hypersonic missiles are being launched?

– I can share with you personal impressions. This night was really quite restless in Kyiv. Even compared to previous attacks, this was the eighth since the beginning of May. Today, the intensity of the fire, all these tracers, flashes, explosions, were different from those that we had experienced before.

We, the Ukrainian people, all have become experts in this matter in terms of everyday life. I did not hear a single sound of "hit" tonight, these sounds are different. All explosions were either the work of our air defense systems or the downing of this missile in the air. According to official reports, not a single drone or missile reached the target.

If we are talking about further Russia's actions, then, judging by the fact that quite often the Russian military command demonstrates not very logical steps, we can assume that they will still try to break through our air defenses. The second option, more logical, is that they will come to the conclusion that it’s better not to waste expensive missiles at least for the capital of Ukraine and those objects that are located on the territory of the Kyiv region or not so many.

– Ukraine also received British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles. How can they influence the course of the war?

– It is known that Russia retains a great advantage in aviation, but has not been able to gain air supremacy. There was air superiority for even a few weeks, but this is not the level of dominance. This cannot be compared to when the US-led coalition conducted Operation Desert Storm or operations in other conflict zones when one side gains air supremacy completely blocking the sky, which makes it possible to use aircraft easily and with maximum efficiency.

Russia, with all the numerical and qualitative tenfold advantages, could not achieve this. Ukraine has retained some of its aircraft and is still using them as efficiently as possible, based on the quantity and quality of these aircraft, which are over 30 years old. Ukraine got its newest aircraft in 1991.

At the moment, Ukraine is in a situation where it is still very much inferior in terms of aviation capabilities. The prospect of changing this situation is to obtain Western-made aircraft, but this may not happen earlier than six months.

Therefore, Ukraine is trying to compensate for this weakness in other ways and performs successfully.

Ukraine began to use the HIMARS MLRS, which significantly changed the balance of power on the battlefield. However, its fire range, roughly speaking, is 70 km. Considering that these systems are used in the first line, they can be used to defeat targets at a distance of 50-60 km behind enemy lines.

Currently, having received missiles with a range of more than 200 km, we can already talk about the Russian operational depth targeting.

And what does it do? First and foremost, depots and command posts within fire range will now be destroyed. Also, by doing this, Ukraine achieves the effect that Russia will be forced to react to this and move back its zones of concentration of troops or concentration of manpower and, accordingly, supply chains to a greater distance. It takes time. Ultimately, this is preparation for a successful offensive operation on our part. That is the weakening of the enemy's ability to conduct aggressive defense or counteroffensive.

I’d like to repeat, we can already talk about at least a distance of more than 200 km. There are various types of these missiles. We are also talking about drones, which Britain has officially announced. In any case, Ukraine strongly increases its ability to influence the enemy already at operational depth.

This already covers the entire occupied territory, including annexed Crimea, including the Kerch Bridge.

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