Ukrainian Political Scientist: Moscow Is Rushing Over Lukashenka's Illness

Russia does not have a script for "after".

Has Lukashenka become a war criminal for Ukraine? What kind of relations are waiting for Kyiv and Minsk after the change of power in our country? The Charter97.org website talked about this with Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Tsybulko.

– The media are actively discussing the topic of the parade on May 9 in Moscow. How do you assess the footage from Red Square?

– This was not a parade in an imperial bloated format, but a practical action, the essence of which is that the Putin elite loves rituals. The state administration system is not only a media field for them but also a complete ritualization.

They constantly lay flowers on some stone or bronze statues. They are creating a calendar that shows Russia as a “super-successful” state, although neither financial indicators nor technological level evidence that Russia is even one of the top 20 countries. Although it solemnly belongs to the top 20 and the total volume of its economy is just over $1.5 trillion (sometimes it is about $2 trillion, and even more). In general, the Russian Federation is at the deep end of the list in terms of per capita income. This is a rich country of poor people. Poverty is one of the technologies to keep the Russian people in obedience.

– After the parade in Moscow, Lukashenka faced health problems. Conspiracy theories are being discussed now. One of them is that the dictator could have been poisoned. How likely is this in your opinion?

– As far as I know, Moscow is also rushing because of this. They do not have a post-Lukashenka plan. At least there are no signs of the existence of such a plan. They considered Lukashenka to be die-hard and "eternal". The question was who would outlive Putin or Lukashenka. I think that Lukashenka was firmly convinced that he would outlive Putin.

Did they use the Novichok agent? If Russia were sure that the people would make the occupation of Belarus easier than withdrawing from Ukraine, then it would be obvious that they used the Novichok.

It seems to me that they want to annex Belarus, but who will allow them? The Kremlin does not have a realistic plan for annexation of Belarus. It could be such a spontaneous action the same with the attack on Crimea, which looked like an improvisation.

My opinion is that those units that seized Crimea have already been defeated in Ukraine. It is clear that the Belarusian army is loyal to the Russian one. The fact that Belarus did not in any way resist the attack of Russian troops on Ukraine from its territory means that Belarus is unlikely to resist the deployment of any Russian troops.

An important question: are the Armed Forces of Belarus capable of resisting Russia, following the example of the Ukrainian ones? In this regard, if the level of absorption of the Belarusian forces by the Russian special services and the army is already too high, they are fully integrated, then Belarus has problems.

It is impossible to resist and use any guerrilla methods without at least an analogue of the Ukrainian UNA-UNSO [Ukrainian National Assembly – Ukrainian People's Self-Defence - Ed.].

– The Ukrainian Rada recognized the Belarusian dictator involved in the deportation of Ukrainian children. Did Kyiv burn bridges and consider Lukashenka a war criminal?

– I would say that the links with Belarus are not completely blocked. Although the ambassador has been recalled, Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Kubrakov is the nephew of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Belarus Kubrakov. Therefore, the family links exist.

It seems to me that Lukashenka has gone so far that he has lost any subjectivity. Any agreement with him will be adjusted by Moscow. Today, there is nothing to talk about with him. Moreover, he does not stop acting in favour of the Russian aggressor even now.

I'm not talking about his involvement in the case of the kidnapping of Ukrainian children. This is such a weak article. Lukashenka will appear in another case - the “genocidal destruction of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure”. The Belarusian regime will pay for every takeoff of a Russian aircraft from Belarusian airbases and the announcement of an air alert in Ukraine.

After all, every air raid is a shutdown of the economy, losses that someone has to cover. Did Lukashenka think about how he would cover the losses?

Lukashenka has put the Belarusian people in a situation where an alliance with an aggressor will cost a huge price.

– Has Ukraine begun to consider the possibility of relations with a free Belarus in the future?

– We already have the relations. We keep in touch with the opposition and have a special parliamentary group.

Also, the soldiers of the Belarusian national troops as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are frequent guests at the Ukrainian Parliament. They are in dialogue with the Ukrainian Parliament and there are a lot of projects.

I think that the personnel potential of the future Belarus in terms of public administration is being formed in Europe - I mean the future bureaucratic apparatus. The military-security apparatus is being formed within the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

These security forces have been trained and they will return to Belarus as a structure that will replace the occupying security forces. I can’t call the current Belarusian law enforcement agencies in other terms. The violence that Lukashenka and his security forces have done to peaceful protests is not just a crime against humanity, but occupational actions.

Therefore, Lukashenka also has another bill - from the Belarusian people, which he will not be able to pay, he understands this very well.

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