Volodymyr Fesenko: Lukashenka Has Cut Off His Last Escape Routes

The dictator's fear and paranoia are intensifying.

Lukashenka for the first time publicly confirmed the damage to the Russian A-50U airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft in Machulishchy, calling it a "terrorist attack". He blamed a "Ukrainian saboteur", the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) and the CIA for this. Why did the Belarusian dictator “break through” after more than a week of silence about the incident in Machulishchy?

Charter97.org spoke about this with Volodymyr Fesenko, a prominent Ukrainian political scientist and the head of the Penta Center of Applied Political Survays.

– This may be linked to Lukashenka's recent trip to Beijing. It is possible that he feeled strong anti-American sentiments in China, and it influenced him. He also decided to demonstrate toughness, to act in a similar style.

Perhaps there are some internal reasons that affected Lukashenka, but this is better for Belarusian experts to judge. Perhaps there are some problems inside the country, poor performance by border guards or special services.

It seems to me that Lukashenka perceived what happened as a personal humiliation. He imitates Putin in many ways. For him, everything should be stable and under control, and then an incident occurs that shows that there is no complete control.

Lukashenka is becoming increasingly paranoid. It is generally common among dictators. We see an increase in Putin’s paranoia, and now this is happening with the Belarusian ruler.

He is afraid of the transfer of hostilities to the territory of Belarus. Lukashenka sees this as a threat to his personal power. The fact that Belarusian partisans claimed involvement in this incident also strengthens his paranoia.

Lukashenka understands that the Belarusian opposition is now on the side of Ukraine. Many Belarusians are fighting in Ukraine and they can turn their arms against him after the end of the war, or if Lukashenka directly supports Putin, he will get involved in a war against Ukraine.

Let me emphasize that the incident in Machulishchy increased Lukashenka's paranoia and fears. His emotional breakdown is linked to it. He generally has a quick mouth. He likes to create informational occasions with his emotional expressions, but it’s incorrect to go down to such rudeness and this is a kind of “red line”.

Actually, the "red line" was crossed by Lukashenka on February 24 last year. At the moment when the Russian Federation attacked Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, but as for personal relations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, after such insults, I think that they are out of the question.

This is another sign of increased confrontation. Lukashenka is getting deeper and deeper into the swamp of war and conflict with Ukraine. Lukashenka rushes about releasing his emotions. From the point of view of classical politics, if he rationally assessed his prospects, then it would be better for him to avoid such rudeness in relations with the Ukrainian leader, however, he did it. So, he cut off his last escape route.

– You mentioned that hostilities could be transferred to the territory of Belarus. How do you see it?

– I'm not talking about postponing classic ground warfare. We see that Ukraine unofficially, and informally uses tactics of the same response to shelling and strikes on their territory.

Ukraine strikes the territory of those countries from which Ukraine is being attacked. This is inevitable During the war. It was bound to happen sooner or later. Ukraine is now building up its fleet of drones and, in my opinion, there will be retaliatory attacks on Russian territory.

If there are attacks on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, then there will be attacks on military facilities on Belarusian territory. I want to repeat it once again, this is inevitable.

As for other forms of military actions, it depends on Lukashenka. If he gets involved in Putin's military adventure and if Belarus officially enters the war against Ukraine, then representatives of the Belarusian opposition will participate in this war on the side of Kyiv. There will be no obstacles for them to start a war against Lukashenka on the territory of Belarus.

Lukashenka made a fatal mistake on February 24. He continues to make minor mistakes, but if he gets involved in the war against Ukraine, then that's it. I think that then it will have a very sad ending. He may become a victim of this war before Putin.

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