29 March 2024, Friday, 16:28
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AFU Officer: The Entire Russian Army Can Make A ‘Goodwill Gesture’

AFU Officer: The Entire Russian Army Can Make A ‘Goodwill Gesture’
Oleksiy Hetman

There are two scenarios for the development of the war in Ukraine.

The Kremlin is trying to rock Moldova aiming the fact that Russia has no obvious successes at the front in Ukraine. What is Russia planning for this country? Oleksiy Hetman, Major of the Reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, answered this and other questions for Charter97.org.

– A few weeks ago, there was information that a coup d'état was planned in Moldova. To do this, a group of the Kadyrovtites was going to make their way to Chisinau. So the other day anti-government rallies inspired by the Russians took place in the capital of Moldova.

They want to see how the international community will react to what is happening in Moldova. They want to provoke Ukraine so that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have to intervene if hostilities begin in a neighbouring country. Now we are following the development of the situation in Transnistria. Obviously, the Russian Federation is involved in the developments there. The Kremlin is supporting this financially and controlling this.

– Do the Russian troops pose a danger in Transnistria?

– The Russian military task force group in Transnistria near the village of Kolbasna is small. There are about two thousand soldiers who can carry out military service and conduct military operations. From 6 to 10 thousand, according to various sources, are engaged in maintenance, a work that is not related to military service.

These are the remnants of the 14th Russian Army, which got out of there in 1995. Their depots cover 150 ha near the village of Kolbasna. About 20 000 tons of various shells and weapons are stored there. The troops are guarding the depots there. These troops are almost unable to attack or conduct combat operations.

Soldiers who serve there were born in the 1990s and 2000s. In fact, they are Moldovans who work there for a salary. Although they have Russian passports and military IDs, they can hardly be clearly perceived as Russians. For sure, they will not fight for the Russian World and the Russian Spirit. They just earn money and they won't join the fight in case of hostilities.

– Is it possible that Russia will attempt to take weapons and ammunition out of Transnistria?

– They can try but they will not succeed. This territory, let's say, is almost an enclave. They definitely won’t be able to take it out through Moldova and even more so through Ukraine. They want to most likely but there is a huge distance between the desired and reality.

– Massed bombings were a strong weapon of the Russians for a long time. Why have they been gone for three weeks?

– Russia is getting ready. Five ships capable of carrying Caliber cruise missiles have taken up combat duty in the Black Sea. Strategic air forces were deployed over different airfields, the main three types of bombers. Russia is ready to attack. Now they are checking our air defence. After all, their stock of long-range and high-precision missiles is already critically small.

They are not taking care of their people, but they save weapons. Russian mothers can give birth to new soldiers, but they have not yet learned how to give birth to weapons. The Kremlin is afraid of being left without missiles at all.

The Russians have spent up to 90% of some of their very expensive missiles to undermine Ukraine's energy infrastructure. However, they did not succeed. Our energy is alive, and missiles, depending on the kind, cost millions of dollars.

They launch a missile to hit a powerstation, causing little financial damage, and we repair it in less than a day. There is no military or economic logic in this. The Kremlin is doing this to "spoil the nerves" of the Ukrainians inside the country, as they say in Odesa.

– Lukashenka is on a visit to China. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) links his visit with the fact that the Belarusian dictator may begin to help transport weapons from China to Russia. Is it likely that Beijing will help the Kremlin with weapons?

– Yes, it is. First, Beijing proposed a 12-point "peace plan" that was ridiculed, if not to use diplomatic terms. 12 points about nothing. Then they called it the "Chinese position". Our friends in the US warned them that if China crosses the red lines, it will face certain difficulties and sanctions.

I really don’t want to offend the Belarusians, but it’s clear that Russia means for China almost the same as Belarus for the Russian Federation. They do not see it as some serious competitor or partner. Russia tells about their great country just inside. For some reason, even many in Belarus and Ukraine believe in this.

But it is worth opening even Wikipedia and looking at the gross domestic product that is produced in Russia and comparing it with the GDP of other countries. Thus, Russia's GDP is at the level of Brazil, less than in the UK, Germany and Italy. Compared to the US or China, the Russian Federation produces 15-20 times fewer goods and services. Its economy is much weaker. Even the budget of the Pentagon is about three times the budget of the Russian Federation.

Naturally, China does not want to quarrel with America over Russia. The leadership of China and the US made an unofficial agreement. The leaders of these countries have met recently. They decided that the world had become bipolar. China is on one side and the United States is on the other. Such a conclusion can be drawn from these meetings. Then they will fight for leadership. Russia is not a player at all in this bipolar world.

Lukashenka came to negotiate with China on the supply of weapons through Belarus to Russia. In order for China to bypass the sanctions that may be imposed on due to its cooperation with the Russian Federation.

I don’t think that even by supplying some weapons to Russia through Belarus, China can somehow significantly improve the situation for the Kremlin at the front in Ukraine or earn money. We are talking about amounts that are no more than an operational margin.This is not important for China.

This is fundamental for the dictator Lukashenka. In simple military language, Lukashenka decided to just bow and scrape before Putin. Show him that he is his ally helping him.

I think that China will not go into conflict with the United States and the entire civilized world because of Russia. The Russian Federation is not worth it for China.

– What can we expect from the course of the war in the near future?

– Contradictory information comes from the Ukrainian MoD, the leadership of the Defence Intelligence. The generals believe that the war may end even by the end of the summer. Others believe that it will take several years. Both those and those are right, no matter how strange it may sound.

Kyrylo Budanov (the Head of the Defence Intelligence - Ed.), our intelligence, is actually talking about ending the war before the end of the summer. He says that victory will be achieved in a military-political way.

It is known that we are planning a serious counter-offensive operation. Our NATO partners and the Institute for the Study of War say that we must liberate as much territory as possible. Then the Russians will withdraw their troops from Ukraine under pressure from the Armed Forces of Ukraine and sanctions.

The British Minister of Defence said that 97% of the combat-ready Russian troops are concentrated on the front line. This is not only their observation, but also of other intelligence agencies. This means that the servicemen who are now fighting are practically the entire Russian army. This is all Russian equipment: armors and artillery. No depots, they no longer have starages. They have taken all the scrap metal they had.

When they go on the offensive, and we go on the counteroffensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can simply smash the entire Russian army. What kind of war can we then talk about if there is no one to fight with? The Russian army will just disappear.

They know it, and if their offensive does not bring results, then it is quite possible that the Russian Federation will simply withdraw its troops after our counteroffensive, as they did near Kherson. They call it the "goodwill gesture".

If they do not do this and continue to conduct defensive battles, then, of course, before the end of the year we will not be able to squeeze them out of our territory. Then the war could drag on for several more years. It will be more of a positional war.

In general, both war ending forecasts are correct. It all depends on how Russia acts after the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

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