Political Analyst: Beijing Will Not Defend Lukashenka

There is no harmony in the trio Beijing-Moscow-Minsk and it is not expected.

Political scientist Aliaksandr Klaskouski, in an article for This Is It, analyses Lukashenka's attempts to balance his dependence on the Kremlin with the help of China:

- There is no equality in relations between Beijing and the Kremlin, either. China, taking advantage of the unenviable position in which the Russian leadership has found itself due to its own recklessness and exorbitant ambitions, is gradually bringing to heel its big but dumb northern neighbour. China benefits from Russians fighting with Europe and giving them gas for next to nothing and building the pipelines themselves. It is just as profitable to buy cheap Belarusian potash, which has been cut off from many former markets.

The Russian Federation, weakened in the unequal struggle with the collective West, may very well become a raw materials appendage, a semi-colony of China, as some commentators predicted long ago.

So, in fact, there is no harmony in the trio of Beijing-Moscow-Minsk and it is not to be expected. And what is most important from the Belarusian point of view is that Lukashenka's hopes to balance the Kremlin's pressure with China's help are quite illusory.

When it comes to trade and economic diversification, the annual Belarusian export to China, although it has increased, is still comparable to the monthly export to Russia. Therefore, the link to its market remains colossal and de facto has no alternative. This means that in the future it will still be necessary to cede important positions to Moscow under the guise of "deepening integration" and implementation of the so-called union programmes.

Politically speaking, China is very far away from Belarus and will not stand up for it. And it will certainly not breast to defend Lukashenka's personal power. Beijing, by and large, does not care who rules in Minsk.