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Lukashenka Risking To Step On Chinese's Toes?

Lukashenka Risking To Step On Chinese's Toes?

On why the Belarusian dictator could not negotiate about lithium in Zimbabwe.

Political analyst Aleksandr Fridman has commented on his Telegram channel on the information in the Zimbabwean media that the alleged purpose of Lukashenka's visit to the African country was to try to get a stake in the local lithium business.

It is to be noted that Zimbabwe has the largest reserves of lithium in Africa.

There are three factors to consider when assessing this publication:

1) The News Hawks is a publication that is sharply critical of Zimbabwean President Mnangagwa and especially of corruption in the country. This is not the first time it has written negatively about joint projects between Minsk and Harare. The image of Mnangagwa selling out Zimbabwean resources to dubious regimes is widespread in Zimbabwe.

2) Mnangagwa faces presidential elections this year and his victory is highly questionable. If the current president is defeated, any arrangements could be reconsidered. So it would be better to fly to Zimbabwe after the local elections rather than now. However, Lukashenka does not seem to have the time.

3) Zimbabwean lithium is an area of China's interest. It is unlikely that Beijing would allow a "friendly regime" (but still a foreign one) to interfere in China's fiefdom. Would Lukashenka risk stepping on the toes of the Chinese? This is even less likely, because in the context of an unfortunate situation for Russia on the front in Ukraine, official Minsk is counting precisely on China's support.

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