Sunset Over Industrial Swamp

Every single Belarusian citizen who buys products in stores knows the economic situation.

Factories are approaching the very bottom of the debt hole while some economists are summing up the results of the work of Belarusian enterprises in 2022 and others are making forecasts of economic growth by 3.8%. Of course, the expectations for 2023 are not encouraging, and the heads of enterprises are repeating “We will tighten our belts”, an overused phrase of the entire Lukashenka’s time.

The situation is reflected not only in attempts to balance the books but also in yet another deception of the workers. Many enterprises decided to give quite good bonuses by the standards of our country at the end of the year. As much as 400 BYR for the New Year. In fact, the workers who strive to make ends meet were pleased by this news, however, just for a minute. Another order came out along. It lifted the previous salary increase. In fact, they committed fraud: they took away part of the salary and allegedly paid bonuses.

Thanks to the sanctions against Belarus, a number of economic ties have been destroyed and the market has been unbalanced. The products that used to be exported to Ukraine and Europe are difficult to offer to countries that, in principle, are not interested in them. Therefore, one can often see periodic stagnation of products in almost every enterprise working for any export. The Lukashists are going to increase the level of investment by up to 20% of the GDP because of this economic situation. Most likely, this means huge new loans for reorganizing or complete replacement of some segments. This will lead to even more laxity. The finale may be similar to the Bykhau Cannery. The Lukashists ‘invested’ it to death.

No matter how the regime tries to hide or underestimate the numbers, inflation and recession of the economy are visible to absolutely every Belarusian who goes to stores. It was known that the country's GDP fell by 4.9% even in September, and a year earlier by 5.2%. And although the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), which seems to be loyal to the regime, predicts in the final reports a “stable” decline in profits at the same level of 5.2%, thanks to crop yields, the figures for production in January and February will show a completely different situation. The price of petroleum products will decrease due to oil price limitations. It will be easier to close some shops of Hrodna Azot OJSC than to operate at a loss. Fertilizers are not needed even on Belarusian fields in winter. The wrestled-down Belaruskali is also unlikely to give any hope for the regime. Well, and oil refining has been almost completely working for the domestic market since 2021.

Artsiom Chernikau, especially for the Basta Telegram channel