'Belarusians Are To Get Ready For Power Shift': Forecast For 2023

A peace treaty is possible only under Ukrainian terms.

Will Ukraine win in 2023? Will Russia collapse? What will this year be like for Belarus? Dzmitry Bandarenka, the coordinator of the European Belarus Civil Campaign, shared his forecast with the Charter97.org website.

– The main event of the past year, of course, was the war in Ukraine. It began with Western forecasts that ‘Kyiv will fall in 72 hours’. Today, Western media are already quite seriously discussing the prospect of the liberation of Donbas and Crimea. How did Ukraine manage to change the situation?

– I'll start answering this question by saying that Russia, whose European population is about 100 million people, attacked the country with more than 40 million population. You must always take these figures into account when they say that "Russia is very big" and "Ukraine is small."

The Ukrainian defence industry was significantly developed even back in Soviet times. The Dnipropetrovsk-Kharkiv conglomeration of military enterprises was incredibly powerful. Ukraine produced a huge amount of weapons during Soviet times: from the production of machine guns and armors to missiles, aircraft and nuclear fusion bombs. I want to note that these defence traditions have been largely preserved. The engineering and scientific potential of Ukraine is huge. Also in the USSR, Ukrainians were considered the best soldiers and sergeants, and this is indeed a very powerful factor.

In addition, over the past eight years, since the start of Russian aggression in 2014, the Ukrainian military has learned a lot: they have carried out significant reforms in command and control, training and rearmament according to the NATO standards have been going on, and many military commanders have also been trained in the countries of the Alliance.

Another basic factor is that Ukraine borders five Western countries and only Moldova is not a member of the European Union and NATO among them. Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland are the countries of the Alliance.

The Soviet Union has already made this mistake: having attacked Afghanistan, it was unable to block the border with Pakistan, through which the Mujahideen were supplied. However, there are no high mountains and the Western supply is well-established in Ukraine.

However, the most important factor is the love of freedom and courage of the Ukrainian people, who are waging a just war and fighting for their land and freedom.

– Everyone is wondering when the war will end. Judging by the dynamics of the developments, do you see the possibility that it will end this year?

– There is such a possibility. I will repeat, we have a few key points. Of course, Russia has a huge mobilization potential and can call, equip and arm two million people for sure within a certain time. We must not underestimate the enemy at this point, it can happen.

On the other hand, Putin is not the best 'manager'. In recent years, he has failed the Russian economy, made it 'drug-addicted', and now the main source of income is the sale of energy resources abroad. So, due to the attack on Ukraine and the imposed sanctions, Russia practically lost the European energy market in a year, which is the closest logistically and most profitable for the Russian economy. After all, energy resources went to Europe, and huge flows of money, petrodollars, petroeuro, cars, machine tools and high-tech products came back.

In February, the embargo on oil products will be imposed. Russia has lost the market for coal and pipeline gas. They are still supplying liquefied natural gas (LNG), but we see that the UK is already refusing it. Russia is largely losing the market for crude oil and the last will be the petroleum products market. This is a huge blow to the Russian financial system.

We know that 300 billion dollars are frozen in the West. The Russian Federation spent incredible money on the war this year. If Russia continues its aggression in Ukraine and tries to invade from the Belarusian side, then the West's sanctions will increase even more. They are in a zugzwang situation.

In my opinion, one more main factor is the willingness of the West to help Ukraine, supply advanced weapons and provide multi-billion dollar assistance to restore the infrastructure, economy and financial system of Ukraine. We see such a will so far.

All this can lead to the fact that Russia will be overstressed and the war will end in 2023. There is an option to end the war without signing a truce. In fact, the parties will not be able to conduct offensive operations. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine Ukraine liberating Crimea and Donbas, there are huge number of troops and echeloned defence there. But if an economic catastrophe occurs in Russia, then peace will come on Ukraine's terms. However, in the first six months, undoubtedly, the parties will try to undertake more significant military offensive actions.

– Ukraine is fighting not only for its independence today but also defending Western values, the values of democracy. Looking at the reaction of the West in this crisis situation, what do you think, will the democratic world be able to remain the leader or will we face a change of Western supremacy, and China will emerge at the forefront?

– China has already taken the lead as an independent country. Nevertheless, if we talk about alliances of democratic states, then the advantage of the economies of the democratic world countries is very significant. The US and Canada are huge markets, there are the European Union and the UK. There is Japan and South Korea. It is known that a military alliance has already been created: the USA, Australia and the UK.

So far, in economic and military terms, the countries of the democratic world exceed the military-economic potential of China by several times. Although, according to a number of scientists, the world has entered a phase of wars for supremacy. They believe that the struggle between the US and China will escalate, but, again, the People's Republic of China has practically no allies, and the Americans have a huge number of them.

I would like to stress that China is very dependent on global trade and 70% of its maritime trade passes through the Strait of Malacca. In this case, the US has a great opportunity to deprive China of raw materials and trade with Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Beijing understands this today.

Modern history teaches us so far that democracies create more conditions for the creative development of people, therefore 90% of all world patents were registered within the United States. China in many respects "steals" these achievements, although now it is already creating a lot on its own.

– Many people try to predict what will happen in Russia in the near future. There are many scenarios: the option of a huge North Korea, the collapse of Russia, a silent coup and a ‘merciless Russian revolt. How do you think the situation will develop?

– A quotation from The Little Golden Calf, a famous satirical novel by Soviet authors Ilf and Petrov, perfectly describes Putin's policy of the last twenty years and aggression against Ukraine: "Saw weights, Shura, saw, they are made of gold". Here's what it's about. Russia still surpassed China in terms of GDP in 2000. Twenty years have passed and Russia has 1/10 of the Chinese economy. The population of China during this time has grown more than the entire population of Russia: by 150 million people. The Russian population declined during this time. India's population has grown by 350 million. This is more than the population of the Russian Federation, multiplied by two.

Russia's main current concept is "Eurasianism". What kind of “Eurasian supremacy” can we talk about if the Russian Federation loses both in terms of population and economy to both China and India? Plus a huge population growth in Turkey, the Caucasus and the countries of Central Asia. There could be a doubling of the population in 20 years. Russia is still among the top ten countries with the worst ratio of the able-bodied population to the number of unemployed, mainly pensioners.

In this situation, Putin attacks Orthodox Georgia, Orthodox Ukraine, and tries to control predominantly Orthodox Belarus, but this is just an attempt to hide the failures of his policy and distract the population. Nothing else can explain it.

Perhaps this is Putin's insane rationalism: we will capture Ukraine and Belarus and increase the percentage of the Slavic population. However, this is just insane. Instead of entering into lucrative alliances, Putin has opened up Siberia and the Far East (with a combined population of less than 40 million) to China, which has a population of 1.415 billion. It is a matter of a short time when Beijing will take advantage of this.

The Putin regime will inevitably face a catastrophe. But when Putin will disappear, the new rulers of Russia will be forced to improve relations with the West, blaming all the mistakes and problems on today's insane leader sitting in the Kremlin. Russia or what remains of it will not be up to Ukraine and Belarus.

– Speaking about Belarus, what main events in the past year would you note for our country?

– The main thing is the economic catastrophe in Belarus. When the so-called independent economists refer that the fall in Belarusian GDP is about 4%, I would like to tell them: then you should believe the data on the ‘elections’, where Lukashenka drew 90% for himself.

I think that the fall in Belarusian GDP was at least 10% this year. Why? The BelNPP almost did not function. According to various sources, the production of petroleum products fell from 30% to 50%. The regime has lost the Ukrainian market for oil products, it used to import 80% of gasoline from Belarus, made from Russian oil. Deliveries to the EU were also significantly reduced.

We know that the production of potassium has fallen significantly because it is impossible to export it by rail or bypass the restrictions. Transit has fallen, both along the North-South and the West-East lines because the Ukrainian market has been closed due to the sanctions, and supplies of oil products and other goods have fallen. The Russian-Ukrainian trade, which after 2014 went through the territory of Belarus, really froze.

Also, Russia stopped gas supplies via two gas pipelines that went from Siberia through Belarus to Poland and beyond.

When they say that GDP has fallen by 4%, it is ridiculous. The Lukashenka regime has largely lost many spheres of the Belarusian economy while losing the long-term European and Ukrainian markets. This is one more significant point.

Undoubtedly, the Lukashenka regime is an accomplice of aggression. War has come to our house. Military strikes were not carried out on the territory of Belarus only due to the goodwill of the Ukrainian leadership. Now we know that if Russia attempts to attack Russians from our country, then military facilities on the territory of Belarus will become a legitimate target, and maybe even infrastructure facilities, railway for example, which is quite close to the Ukrainian border. After all, it will be the main logistical means for supplying troops.

By the way, this is to a certain extent a guarantee that there will be no long-term attack from Belarus. The railway and highways in Belarus are the 'lifeline routes' for Russia. These are the last routes to trade with the EU not only for Belarus and Russia but also for China. I think that China is also putting pressure on Russia so that there is no invasion.

The third worth noting point is that people's moods have not changed. The hatred of the authorities only increased. Yes, people are afraid and intimidated, but this did not add to the love for the regime and Russia. Belarus is on the verge of change. But now everything will depend on other players: Ukraine and Western countries. It depends on the time needed to end the war and defeat Russia.

– What is your forecast for the next year for our country?

– The year will not be easy. Especially the first half. We are to be optimistic and be ready for a power shift in Belarus. We need to steel ourselves for the fact that everything will change and we will need not only to rebuild Belarus but to build it as a country that is part of European civilization and the North Atlantic military bloc. Politicians, media, Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine, patriots at home and abroad should be ready for this.

We must overtake it together with Ukraine and become a normal country in the civilized world. There are all chances for the beginning of changes in 2023.