Oleksandr Kovalenko: Attack From Belarusian Territory Would Be Suicide For Occupiers

Russia is suffering dozens of times more losses in Ukraine than the USSR did in Afghanistan and Chechnya.

On the night of January 1, the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the base of the invaders in Makiivka, and today it became known about the destruction of the base of the GRU special forces in the Kherson region. How do such events affect the Russians?

Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko answered this and other questions to Charter97.org.

Let's just say it doesn't motivate them. The Russian army has been suffering serious losses in Ukraine for quite a long time. This is due to a number of factors. We could repeatedly see the destruction of a large accumulation of equipment, ammunition, command and personnel of the Russians. However, this did not have any critical moral and psychological impact on the Russians themselves.

First of all, I mean that such a number of losses should, in theory, outrage Russian society. Force it to demand explanations from the command, or the truth about the losses. Sergei Shoigu said that they had 6,000 dead, but another 300,000 had to be urgently called in because there was not enough manpower.

This is what should cause protests, demands to clarify what is happening, but no one will do this. They can be outraged in social media, leave 100 thousand comments under the posts of Girkin or another talking head, but nothing more.

Such is the specificity of the Russian mentality. During the war in Afghanistan, everyone also perfectly understood that the USSR was suffering serious losses. During the first and second Chechen wars, everyone also understood that the Federal troops suffered colossal losses. Now in Ukraine they are suffering dozens of times more losses than all these wars put together, but they are silent.

— Should we expect political consequences, such as purges of officers or a reshuffle in the command of the Russian army?

— I do not think that in the near future we will observe any major changes in this regard. Surovikin (commander of the Russian occupation forces— edit.) will definitely not be replaced. He will remain in his place for some time. Some local officers may be removed from command, but nothing more.

— If we talk about missile attacks, then Russia vilely hits civilian infrastructure, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit military targets. What is the reason for such a difference in the tactics of shelling?

— Ukraine does not commit terrorist acts, unlike the Russian occupiers. Surovikin's tactics are attacks on critical infrastructure. Our task is to destroy their ammunition depots, command posts, deployments of personnel and equipment. High precision, long range.

You have probably heard about the shelling of Donetsk many times, which has already become a byword. Since the residents of Donetsk themselves and Russian propagandists are sometimes outraged, especially when they fall under these shellings, that they are being conducted from the territories temporarily controlled by the Russian occupation forces.

So, they are trying to blame the Armed Forces of Ukraine for these attacks by chaotic multiple launch rocket systems with extremely low accuracy of destruction. But, even if Ukrainian fighters fire at Donetsk or Luhansk, they use high-precision artillery without any consequences for the civilian population in order to destroy the invaders' facilities. That's the difference. High-precision long-range impact and low-precision chaotic terrorist blows.

— Information about a possible offensive from the territory of Belarus is increasingly appearing in the media. Can Russia take such a step, given the huge losses in the Donetsk and Kherson regions and the loss of initiative on the battlefield?

— To date, no. Russia does not have the opportunity to fully use the territory of Belarus for a second invasion of the territory of Ukraine. A full-fledged strike group has not been formed, there is no sufficient equipment for units, and so on. Such actions should not be expected in the near future.

Even if they try to implement them in the composition in which they are now present on the territory of Belarus, this will be a suicidal step. In my opinion, the presence of Russian invaders on the territory of Belarus now is, first of all, the training of units, which consist of more than 90 percent of partially mobilized freshmen.

Five Belarusian firing grounds are used for this. Then they will be sent to the combat zone in Ukraine. Most likely to the Donbas bridgehead.