Andrius Kubilius: Lukashenka Is Going To The Tribunal

A major breakthrough in democracy spread is coming.

Ukraine's victory in the war and the democratization of Belarus could trigger changes in Russia. Andrius Kubilius, the former Prime Minister of Lithuania and MEP, expressed his opinion in an interview with the Charter97.org website.

— Is Belarus under Russian occupation? Should it be legally considered as such?

— Maybe. I don’t know what would be the legal consequences from the international law point of view if Belarus were recognized as a semi-occupied country.

Maybe, that would even make life for Lukashenka easier: "Living in an occupied country, I cannot take responsibility for anything that occupiers are doing." But his collaboration in aggression against Ukraine is very clear. Illegally, but nevertheless, Lukashenka still controls the administration, and he is allowing Russian forces to use Belarusian territory for that aggression. So, that is pretty simple, United Nations documents are saying that if you are behaving in such a way, if you are allowing your country, which you are administrating, even illegally, to use that country for aggression, you are guilty.

— Hypothetical question. A rocket flies from Belarus and destroys, let's say, expensive equipment at a Ukrainian factory. Who is to pay reparations after the war?

— I don't know. It’s a good question. Maybe, even that would be a responsibility for Belarus to pay the damages, at least partially. But for the time being it is not being discussed too much. When we are discussing reparations, we are talking much more about Russian responsibility. Also, we are thinking about how to use Russian money which is frozen now, although it takes some time to find a proper legal decision, this initiative is moving ahead.

— Why does Putin continue this ruthless senseless war? What is his calculus now?

— He put himself into the corner. Now, he is like a mad rat in the corner. He is totally losing his rationality.

When people were discussing, what was the reason for Putin to start the war, some were thinking he was always dreaming about the restoration of the big empire, he was speaking about that. I do not believe what Putin is saying. I am much more looking at which aims and goals he wants to achieve. From my point of view, especially after the Belarusian revolution of 2020, he became very much afraid that democracy spread is going around.

Second, is that Ukraine, can become a successful country with its EU integration and modernization of the economy which will be a big inspiration for the Russian people to ask the same. That is what his regime is afraid of very much because that destroys its entire basis.

He is definitely, not so much afraid of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO because he understands that NATO is not an aggressive block. It looked to me like he was much more afraid of Ukraine moving towards the EU, because that is the only way how such countries like Ukraine, like Belarus can build their successes in our region. And for him, the success of Ukraine was something that he couldn’t allow because that would destroy the whole regime's impact in Russia.

— So, is Putin trying to destroy the positive example, Ukraine might become, is that why he is continuing the war?

— He is trying to, but Putin's big dreams face strange fate, in some ways. He wants to destroy the Ukrainian nation, but the Ukrainian nation is becoming more united. He wanted not to allow Ukraine to go to the West (even, back in 2014), but he made Ukraine much more united in this western direction. He was shouting against NATO expansion to the borders of Russia but he got Finland and Sweden to become members of NATO.

Now, he tries to destroy Ukraine, but what is the outcome? Ukraine became an EU-candidate country. Without the war, I don’t know how and when it would happen and it is a real breakthrough. He lost his influence in the West (to some extent and there is still some hesitation on what can come after). He lost his geopolitical instrument of the EU's dependency on Russian gas. Finally, Ukraine is fighting and winning the war.

Ukraine has a promise from the West on the restoration and modernization of its economy with the so-called Marshall plan where Russian money will be used. With integration towards the EU, Ukraine can become very strong from the economical and geopolitical point of view member of the European Union, so, it is the opposite of what Putin is trying to achieve.

— Is Ukraine essentially already part of the West, irrespective of what happens next?

— Yes, of course. First of all, because of Ukrainian bravery and military assistance from the West, it became very clear that the collective West, including Ukraine, is much stronger from the military point of view, in comparison to Russia. So, all the balloon of propaganda of the military strength of Russia is gone.

The next question is when the war will end. It will depend, from my point of view, on the capability of the West to deliver the needed weapons to Ukraine, and not only the weapons which are still left somewhere in stock, but to deliver what is needed. And here I see one problem, but I hope that it will be resolved. There are some capitals in the West which still do not have a clear vision of what will be the impact of the Ukrainian victory on Russia. Some of them are afraid that this victory can bring Russia to total collapse: Prigozhin coming to the power, a civil war, nuclear weapons not being controlled by the state — that picture makes some capitals very much worried and then, maybe, they are not so brave in delivering to Ukraine the weapons which Ukraine needs in order to achieve that victory.

Some in the West are not absolutely sure what happens after. That is where I’m trying to speak out, looking into the history: the war which Russia will lose and will open the doors for changes and those changes can be positive and let’s work on that. My message is very simple: the West needs to have a strategy, how to assist the Russian transformation into a positive way.

— There will come a day when hundreds of thousands of Russian troops who know how to kill, steal, rape, and torture, will return home. What future does bring for such a country?

— It’s not so easy to answer such a question, but I know what future we would like to see in Russia. And that is where really Ukraine and Belarus can play the most important role. First of all, the Ukrainian victory can bring changes to Belarus. And then, changes in Ukraine and Belarus can have a major influence on how things will go in Russia.

The first step is the clear victory of Ukraine, which demands Western support in the delivery of arms, in financial support. Such a victory can open the doors for changes in Russia. Those changes can go whatever directions. It can be a total collapse of Russia. As you have said, hundreds of thousands of soldiers will come back with all the habits of terrorists behave. But it can also open the doors for Russia to change into a more normal, more European type of trajectory of development.

As it looks, for the time being, the emphasis, which Putin was trying to use, on the restoration of the empire, playing games with nostalgia (sometimes natural) among the society that brought Russia to a dead end.

And then, the question is what comes next. There are much more possibilities for Russia to go into very catastrophic development and a very limited number of possibilities to change into a more positive way.

A positive scenario is the spread of democracy: Ukraine and Belarus are coming to Russia. Democracy in Russia is a prerequisite to resolve this problem of danger that totalitarian Russia brings to the security of the European continent.

— In which direction Belarus is going?

— Lukashenka is going to the tribunal. In the January session, we are going to vote for a special resolution, which we are drafting now on the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of war of aggression.

When you are looking into the United Nations documents’ description of what is a crime of war of aggression, one of the paragraphs speaks exactly about the cases like Lukashenka: those countries and those leaders who are allowing to use their territory for the aggression against another country — they are guilty in participating in this crime of aggression.

I can see that there will be a major breakthrough in democracy spread to the east of the European continent: after the Ukrainian victory — Belarus. Then, maybe, Russia. Maybe, more slowly, one step forward, two steps back. But nevertheless, I do not see any reason not to believe in such a possibility. It is not so easy to say when it can happen but as we have seen in 2020 with the Belarusian Revolution, it can come very suddenly, when nobody is expecting that.

After becoming a democratic country, Belarus will have a possibility to make a very simple choice: to go with the integration towards the EU or not. I hope, that it will be clear position of the majority of Belarusians to go exactly this European way. I hear that is what Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is speaking. And that is a perspective of Belarusian people to become a normal European country with all the benefits.

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