Stepan Grigoryan: CSTO Will Fall Apart Soon

Armenia can be the first to leave the military bloc.

Armenia refused to conduct military exercises of the CSTO countries on its territory. What is behind Yerevan's new demarche? The Charter97.org website talked about this with Stepan Grigoryan, one of the leaders of the democratic movement in Armenia in the 1990s, a former deputy of the Supreme Council of the republic, and ex-Ambassador of Armenia to Russia:

— We support the decision of the Prime Minister of Armenia, which he announced at a big press conference for Armenian journalists. The CSTO has not expressed any attitude in support of Armenia, although it is a security organization. Oddly enough, we must help each other in case of attacks. If the territory of one of the countries is attacked, then the fourth article says that other members must support it. Support can be diplomatic, military, technical — no matter what, but it should be.

Over the past two years, Azerbaijan has entered our territory at least four times, deepening several kilometers. The CSTO did not even make a statement. It is clear that this is not the security system that Armenia needs.

It is certainly absolutely pointless to conduct military exercises in our country. Therefore, we support the decision of the Armenian government to refuse Moscow to conduct military exercises on our territory.

— Will Armenia continue to distance itself from this union, and is it possible that it will leave it in the end?

— Firstly, despite the fact that the Armenian authorities act indecisively, they actually confirmed that withdrawal from the CSTO is on the agenda of Armenian foreign policy and is being considered by the government. It is hard to say whether our government will dare to do this, given that our dependence on Russia is quite large, and the CSTO is primarily the Russian Federation, it is difficult to say. However, the fact that this issue is on the agenda is very important, since we didn’t even think about leaving before, we were afraid to talk about it.

My expert opinion is that the CSTO is not only an inactive organization for us, all countries of the treaty have interests with Azerbaijan, including Lukashenka's Belarus and other members. They will never take a step in favor of Armenia, because they are friends with Baku and will not go against them.

There is another problem here. The CSTO claims that the problems we have with Azerbaijan after the big Karabakh war in 2020 are "border disputes". It turns out that the CSTO officially legalizes Azerbaijan's attacks on the Armenian territory, the CSTO makes the territory of Armenia disputable.

On September 13, 2021, the whole world condemned Azerbaijan's invasion of Armenia. The whole world, except for Russia and the CSTO. At the same time, the entry of Azerbaijani troops was so deep that they practically approached the city of Jermuk, which is located 10 kilometers deep into Armenian territory. What border are you talking about? However, the CSTO said that let everything be decided with the help of demilitarization and demarcation.

The CSTO is dangerous for Armenia, as it legitimizes the invasion of Armenian territory. You see, I emphasize that we are talking about Armenia, not about Nagorno-Karabakh. Therefore, the CSTO is a danger to us. From a "security organization" it turned into a "danger organization" for Armenian statehood.

Therefore, we need to withdraw so as not to aggravate relations with other countries. For example, we have good relations with the countries of Central Asia, but being in the CSTO will worsen them. The Armenian government always demands that the CSTO reacts, but these countries have their own interests. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan have huge ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey. They cannot be for us. The CSTO is not working in our favor today.

Remember, on November 23, 2022, the CSTO summit was held in Armenia.

— Yes, when Pashinyan refused to sign the final declaration.

— He did not sign the final declaration, and the statement on Armenia. It turned out that even the statement on Armenia, which the CSTO planned, did not correspond to the interests of Yerevan. The fact that Pashinyan did not sign this final declaration actually means that we are leaving the CSTO. Now we need to make it legal. Because the relations with even those countries with whom we are still good, will worsen because of the CSTO.

Moreover, public opinion has a very bad attitude towards Belarus, and of course — towards Russia. Negative attitudes towards Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan begin. What were our complaints about them? None. Now there is dissatisfaction that they "behave like this." Why do they behave like this? Because they have interests with Azerbaijan. Therefore, it is necessary to leave the CSTO.

— There are other conflicts within the bloc. For example, between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Does the CSTO have a future?

— From my point of view, no. Because Russia occupies a leading role in the CSTO. Everyone knows that there are major players in NATO — France, Turkey, Great Britain, Germany, but everyone knows that the main one there is the United States. The same is with Russia in the CSTO. So, it is not in the interests of Russia that conflicts be resolved.

There are problems between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan now, they will never be solved, not because they cannot be solved but because the main player of the CSTO is not interested in this. On the contrary, Russia needs these problems in order to manipulate, to control the situation. Because if there are no problems between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, they will work with China and the USA. Why would they want Russia, which has no resources to influence.

The Karabakh conflict — Russia does not want to solve it. Putin wants to manipulate this conflict in order to keep both Armenia and Azerbaijan to himself. It was so 20 years ago, and it is so now. Therefore, the CSTO has no future, because the main player is not interested in resolving disputes that occur either between CSTO members, or other countries and a member country. We see this on the example of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

— Russia is quite seriously "stuck" in Ukraine. We already see that, for example, the head of Tajikistan is raising his claims to Putin, demanding a different attitude. Will distancing from the Russian Federation continue in the post-Soviet space?

— You gave a great example when the president of Tajikistan was driven to the edge and he shouted: "We demand respect." A very interesting phrase. The President of Kazakhstan spoke at a major forum, at the same session with Putin, and said: "We will never recognize quasi-entities in the form of Donetsk and Luhansk". What he said was very humiliating.

I will say that there is grumbling and dissatisfaction in the CSTO, the greatest dissatisfaction is expressed by little Armenia, blocking the adoption of a common resolution.

We hear grumbling and discontent from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and it seems to me that this organization will fall apart in the near future. Armenia must leave. After the withdrawal of Armenia, I think the collapse will be inevitable.

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